TURKEY-ARMENIA PEACE UNDER THREAT AMID MUTUAL ACCUSATIONS

AsiaOne
AsiaOne%2BNews/World/Story/A1Story20100212-198295. html
Feb 12 2010
Singapore

ANKARA, Feb 12, 2010 (AFP) – A historic deal to normalise ties between
Turkey and Armenia is under risk of collapsing as the two neighbours
blame each other for blocking the reconciliation process whose future
also depends on Washington and Moscow, analysts say.

After months of Swiss mediation, Ankara and Yerevan signed two
protocols in October to establish diplomatic ties and reopen their
shared border, in a major step towards ending decades of hostility
stemming from World War I-era massacres of Armenians under Ottoman
Turks.

The protocols must now be ratified by both countries’ parliaments,
but the process has stalled for the past five months with the two
countries accusing each other of trying to modify the landmark deals.

"The deal is on the brink of collapse unless the parliaments of Turkey
and Armenia ratify the agreement," said David Philips, a US regional
specialist in an opinion piece for the Boston Globe.

The reconciliation process hit the rocks following a January ruling
by the Armenian Constitutional Court which upheld the legality of
the protocols but said they could not contradict Yerevan’s official
position that the 1915-1917 mass killings of Armenians was genocide –
a label fiercely rejected by Ankara.

An angry Turkey immediately accused Armenia of trying to re-write
and set new conditions on the deals, while Yerevan charged Ankara
with blocking the process and warned that the rapprochement was under
threat of collapse.

Upping the ante, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian said on Wednesday
in London that the Armenian parliament would vote on the protocols
if the Turkish parliament went ahead with the ballot.

In a written message to Sarkisian on Thursday, Turkish President
Abdullah Gul said Ankara was determined to work toward reconciliation
"as long as the aims and obligations of both countries are preserved."

Turkey fears that the Armenian court ruling has shaken the foundation
of the protocols and dealt a big blow to a planned independent
commission to study the World War I mass killings of Armenians because
it effectively dictates what the result should be.

It is also wary of the court’s reference to "western Armenia," which
some in Turkey see as Armenian claims on eastern Turkey.

Philips also fears that the rapprochement could be threatened by a
possible recognition of the killings as genocide by the US Congress
on April 24, the day on which Armenians commemorate the killings.

Left alone by its ally, Turkey would "feel justified to abandon the
protocols," Philips said.

Yerevan, on the other hand, has accused Ankara of setting preconditions
to the protocols by linking normalising of Turkish-Armenian ties
to progress between Armenia and neighbouring Azerbaijan over the
Nagorny-Karabakh dispute – a link that Yerevan rejects.

"The Turkish government will not put the protocols before the assembly
before there is a step forward from Armenia on Nagorny-Karabakh,"
said Mehmet Ali Birand, a political commentator writing in the
English-language Hurriyet Daily News.

"They (Ankara) are not expecting a complete solution of the dispute
but what they want is the beginning of an Armenian withdrawal from
certain positions in Nagorny-Karabakh," he added.

The Nagorny-Karabakh conflict dates from the early 1990s when ethnic
Armenian forces backed by Yerevan seized the region from Azerbaijan
in a war that claimed an estimated 30,000 lives.

In a show of solidarity with Azerbaijan, Turkey closed its border with
Armenia in 1993, dealing a heavy economic blow on the impoverished
nation .

Since 1992, a group headed by France, the United States and Russia –
Armenia’s close ally – have been mediating to find a solution, but
to no avail.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress