URGING TURKEY TO MOVE FORWARD

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Friday February 12, 2010

The protocols on the normalization of relations between Armenia and
Turkey, announced on August 31, 2009, and signed on October 10,
were supposed to lead to the end of the 16-year Turkish blockade
of Armenia. But under the protocols, they must be ratified by the
parliaments of the two sides before they are implemented. The Turkish
side is choosing to continue its blockade by holding up ratification.

If the administration of Armenia’s President Serge Sargsyan could
sign the protocols, it was because Turkey had agreed to exclude its
main demand or precondition for opening the border with Armenia: the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict to Azerbaijan’s satisfaction. But
the Turkish government still insists on that precondition. It says
that the Turkish parliament is unlikely to ratify the protocols until
the Karabakh conflict is resolved. The Turkish prime minister claims
that the parliament makes its own, independent judgment.

In an important speech this week before Chatham House in London,
President Sargsyan sought to lay the groundwork for the next stage of
the very public negotiations between Armenia and Turkey. He called on
Turkey to proceed with the ratification of the protocols but warned
that Armenia would "discontinue" the process if Turkey shows that
its goal is to "protract" the process.

"Senior Turkish officials repeatedly assert that their parliament is
politically independent and its decision is impossible to predict,"
Mr. Sargsyan said. Moreover, they seek the support of opposition
parties as well. But, he noted, his administration has been willing to
lose "a key ally in the ruling coalition" – the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation, which strongly opposes the terms of the protocols –
but has "persevered."

"I am confident that President Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan will,
subject to the demonstration of political will, find sufficient support
within their party, which holds the majority of seats in the Turkish
parliament," Mr. Sargsyan said.

He noted that Armenia’s Constitutional Court had acted promptly
to review the protocols and had ruled unanimously that they were
consistent with Armenia’s Constitution. He announced that he would
immediately submit the protocols to the National Assembly for
ratification. He added: "As the political leader of the political
majority of the Armenian parliament, I reiterate that I rule out
any possibility of the Armenian Parliament failing to ratify the
protocols in case Turkey ratifies the protocols without preconditions,
as agreed."

Thus Armenia is moving toward ratification, but will "discontinue"
the process if Turkey continues to drag its feet and show that
its intention is simply to create the pretense that a process of
normalization is underway.

President Sargsyan’s speech before an influential London audience was
a laudable step toward the resolution, one way or the other, of the
fate of the protocols. It was laudable because he chose a high-profile
forum and because he urged Turkey to act, while remaining firm in his
key positions: (1) that the resolution of the Karabakh conflict cannot
be a precondition for the normalization of relations; (2) that Turkey
must ratify before Armenia ratifies; and (3) that unless there is
prompt action, Armenia will withdraw unilaterally from the protocols.

We trust that his administration and its friends will echo this message
repeatedly in various other forums in the coming days. Before long,
if Turkey continues to "protract" the process, it may be too late to
simply talk about discontinuing it.