‘PROTOCOLS BETWEEN ARMENIA AND TURKEY MAY SURVIVE’
Today’s Zaman
Feb 15 2010
Turkey
For the first time since the chaotic collapse of the Ottoman state
Turkey showed its goodwill and intention to normalize ties with
its Armenian neighbor by signing two protocols last October on the
normalization of relations and establishing diplomatic ties.
However, recent developments surrounding the ratification process have
halted any sort of normalization and analysts believe this might even
worsen the relations between the two countries.
The Armenian diaspora has been very opposed to the protocols and
protested against their signing while meeting with Armenian President
Serzh Sarksyan in early October of last year. The Armenian-American
community is now waiting to get good results from a resolution pending
before the US House of Representatives, which will voting on the
alleged Armenian genocide on March 4. If the resolution passes,
Turkish-Armenian relations will become even more tense and the
diaspora will be able to prevent any further developments vis-a-vis
the protocols.
Speaking to Today’s Zaman, Thomas de Waal, author of the well-read
"Black Garden," a book on the Nagorno-Karabakh war, and a senior
associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said
the two sides have come a long way and if they stop now, they will
be wasting a historic opportunity while risking ending up in a worse
place than before.
Professor Peter Rutland from Wesleyan University, in his interview
with Today’s Zaman, presented Director of National Intelligence
Dennis Blair’s delivery of the Annual Threat Assessment of the US
Intelligence Community to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
on Feb. 2. "The document included a somewhat alarming prediction,"
Rutland said. "Although there has been progress in the past year
toward Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate
relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk
of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh," he said. Noting that
the statement does not alter US government policy — which remains
committed to the peace process, Rutland said it does reflect concern
among some of its analysts about the chances of success.
The primary concern among Turkish officials is the sub-annex that the
Armenian Constitutional Court attached to the protocols. The court said
the protocols are in line with Article 11 of the Armenian Declaration
of Independence: "The Republic of Armenia stands in support of the
task of achieving international recognition of the Armenian genocide
in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia." Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu’s reaction was fury, but mostly involved a discussion with
his American counterpart, Hillary Clinton.
"What concerns the Constitutional Court of Armenia, I would say, is
that the question of genocide is not just a political question for
Armenians, but an identity marker — especially among the Armenian
diaspora," said Vicken Cheterian, author of "War and Peace in the
Caucasus: Russia’s Troubled Frontier,"
Warning that relations between the two countries may end up in
a worse situation, de Waal suggested it would be useful for both
sides to make small steps — Turkey to reassert its commitment to
the protocols and start implementing some of their smaller measures
and Armenia to take some small step on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
for example, over Nakhchivan. "Then there will be tangible progress
that will sustain the atmosphere of good will," de Waal asserted.
"Armenians fear that restoring diplomatic relations might mean
forgetting what for them is the genocide of 1915; Turks and
Azerbaijanis fear that diplomatic ties might mean forgetting the
Armenian occupation of Azerbaijan’s territory," Rutland said. Building
hopeful assumptions on recent negative developments, Rutland said,
however, that he does not see anything in the ruling of the Armenian
Constitutional Court on Jan. 10 which should prevent the ratification
of the protocols.
"Turkey sometimes takes a step forward, and another back. But
Ankara has already left the station [its previous position] without
reaching the destination [normalizing relations with Yerevan],"
Cheterian said, referring to Turkey’s relations with Armenia. "Now,
whatever the difficulties — and they are many," Cheterian claims,
"I think it is too early to say that the process is dead, [and]
I think we can expect sudden initiatives, steps forward, as well as
setbacks in the coming months."
BOX: Sarksyan sends protocols to parliament
Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan has submitted two protocols on
normalizing ties with Turkey after decades of hostility to parliament
for ratification, his office has said.
"The presidential administration has already sent the protocols to
parliament for ratification," presidential spokesman Samvel Farmanian
told Agence France-Presse on Friday.
While announcing that he would be sending the protocols to parliament
for approval last week, Sarksyan, however, said the accords must be
voted on by the Turkish Parliament before Armenia’s parliament approves
them. The move came right after the Armenian government approved draft
amendments to the country’s Law on International Agreements last week,
paving the way for Armenia to revoke its signature on two protocols
signed with Turkey.
Some Armenian officials and pro-government politicians have suggested
that if Turkey doesn’t endorse the protocols by the end of March,
Armenia may annul the agreement. The protocols have been submitted
to Turkey’s Parliament, but they have not been discussed or placed
on Parliament’s agenda.
Speaking to Today’s Zaman, Murat Mercan, a senior member of the Justice
and Development Party (AK Party) and the head of Parliament’s foreign
affairs commission, has said he does not think it is appropriate to
address the protocols before the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is
resolved and the detailed reasoning by the Armenian constitutional
court, which found on Jan. 12 that the protocols signed on Oct. 10 of
last year in Zurich to be in conformity with the Armenian constitution,
is made clear. Suleyman Kurt Ankara