WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS?

The Messenger
Feb 16 2010
Georgia

In an article on histmag.org Polish analyst Kamil Janicki discusses
who will benefit from improved relations between Turkey and Armenia.

He says that Russia is interested in increasing its influence in the
South Caucasus and therefore Armenia’s success is in its interest as
Armenia is its main ally in the region. Opening the Turkish-Armenian
border will facilitate Armenia’s economic growth.

The EU is also interested in improving the situation in the region
through stabilising it. However we should remember that Russia
imposed war on Georgia to hinder this country’s development as a
transit entity. Janicki highlights that there is also a conflict
of interest between Turkey and Russia, in particular over Abkhazia
but also in terms of both countries’ involvement in the region, but
he acknowledges that the traditional Turkey-Iran-Russia triangle,
which has functioned as a diplomatic entity since the 18th century,
could still be seen as a going political concern.

The analyst thinks that the Parliaments of both Turkey and Armenia
will ratify the border opening documents. The only thing which might
stop this would be further confrontation in Karabakh.