FLASHPOINT RECIPE: MIX RUSSIA, ISLAM, BORDER WAR

World Net Daily
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Feb 17 2010

Editor’s Note: The following report is excerpted from Joseph Farah’s
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U.S. military experts say the "most likely flashpoint" in Eurasia has
become the Caucasus, a strategic location that is grabbing intelligence
attention because of the prospect of a border war between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, a conflict that not only could draw in Russia but also
Islamic interests there, according to a report from Joseph Farah’s
G2 Bulletin.

U.S. Director for National Intelligence Dennis Blair, in an annual
threat assessment, called unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus "the
most likely flashpoint" in the Eurasia region.

"Moscow’s expanded military presence in and political-economic
ties to Georgia’s separatist regions and sporadic low-level violence
increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed
fighting," Blair said.

At the same time, Blair has warned of the likelihood of another
Armenian-Azerbaijani war over the disputed, largely populated Armenian
Nagorno-Karabakh region inside Azerbaijan.

He attributes the increase in tensions to the recent U.S.-backed
effort to get Armenia and Turkey to re-establish diplomatic relations.

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"Although there has been progress in the past year toward
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate
relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk
of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh," Blair said.

Ironically, it was the U.S. which began two years ago to work with
Turkey and Armenia to re-establish diplomatic relations, culminating
in the signing last October of two protocols that normalized their
relationship after centuries of being at odds with each other.

At the same time, the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement has caused
a serious breach between Azerbaijan and the U.S., and has all but
ruptured relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey.

This rapprochement also has pushed Azerbaijan closer to Russia which
similarly encouraged the historic Armenian-Turkish diplomatic thaw
with the ulterior motive of winning over Azerbaijan as a source of
oil for its South Stream pipeline project. It worked.

Azerbaijan, which condemns the agreements between Armenia and Turkey,
is concerned that the recognition will discourage Armenia from finding
a compromise solution to Nagorno-Karabakh.

While any military attacks appeared slim prior to the agreements,
events since then have altered the U.S. intelligence community’s
outlook and there now is concern there could be renewed war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

These belated concerns on the part of the U.S. intelligence community
of recognizing the unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus as a military
flashpoint have been reported for almost the past two years by the
G2 Bulletin.

That worry about a flashpoint stems from the fact that Russia is
reasserting itself in the Caucasus to form a buffer between its
borders and the rising level of radical Islam, especially in the
North Caucasus.

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