TEN REASONS WHY TURKS WON’T ALLOW THEIR LEADERS TO RATIFY THE PROTOCOLS

NOYAN TAPAN
FEBRUARY 17, 2010
YEREVAN

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 17, NOYAN TAPAN. In earlier columns, I pointed out
Turkey’s deceptive designs in negotiating and signing the Protocols
with Armenia on October 10, 2009.

In addition to planning to deceive Armenia and international public
opinion, Turkish leaders tried to mislead their closest ally,
Azerbaijan, and the Turkish public, about the potential benefits of
the Protocols. Even though the Protocols were clearly in Turkey’s
interest, its leaders tried to oversell the benefits of the negotiated
agreement in order to overcome possible objections from critics at
home and abroad, particularly Azerbaijan.

As expected, the Erdogan government did get into trouble with
Azerbaijan when Pres. Ilham Aliyev complained loudly that by planning
to open the border with Armenia, Turkey would be abandoning its
"Little Brother" which would remove the key incentive for Armenia to
negotiate the return of Karabagh (Artsakh). Azerbaijani officials,
not appeased by Turkish assurances, retaliated by tripling the price of
gas exported to Turkey, taking down Turkish flags from public places,
banning Turkish movies and songs from Azeri TV, and shutting down
Turkish-financed mosques in Baku!

Meanwhile, opposition forces in Turkey, seeing a golden opportunity
to diminish Prime Minister Erdogan’s Parliamentary majority,
immediately accused him of betraying Turkey’s national interests by
siding with their perennial Armenian enemies, rather than with their
Azeri brothers!

In order to counter such accusations, Turkish leaders were forced to
make a series of unsubstantiated claims, exaggerating the benefits of
the Protocols to both Azerbaijan and Turkey. They assured the Azeris
that they would pressure Armenia into returning Artsakh to Azerbaijan
before the Turkish Parliament would ratify the Protocols and normalize
relations with Armenia. Furthermore, Turkish officials reassured their
own public that the Protocols would put an end to "Armenian claims"
of genocide and territorial demands in Eastern Turkey.

The Turkish and Azeri publics were not fooled by Ankara’s
misrepresentation of the Protocols. Here are ten major reasons why
the Turkish Parliament could refuse to ratify the Protocols:

1) Despite repeated announcements by Gul, Erdogan and Davutoglu that
the resolution of the Artsakh conflict is a precondition for the
ratification of the Protocols, the United States, Russia, the European
Union as well as Armenia have repeatedly pointed out that there is no
such stipulation in the Protocols. In addition, they have counseled
against linking the two issues or holding hostage the negotiations
on the Artsakh conflict to the ratification of the Protocols. Armenia
has steadfastly refused to link the Protocols to the Artsakh issue.

2) There is no truth to the Turkish claim that the Protocols would
put an end to Armenia’s pursuit of genocide recognition and its
acknowledgment by third countries. It is also untrue that the
Protocols would set up a mechanism for the study of the Armenian
Genocide. In fact, the Protocols have triggered renewed efforts by
Armenians in recent weeks to seek acknowledgment of the Genocide by
the British, Bulgarian, Israeli and Swedish Parliaments. Moreover,
the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee has scheduled a vote on
the Armenian Genocide resolution on March 4. A similar resolution is
pending in the U.S. Senate.

3) Contrary to Turkish assertions, the "historical commission"
mentioned in the Protocols would serve not as a genocide review board,
but as a platform for Armenia to present demands for restitution
from Turkey.

4) The Turkish claim that the Protocols would end Armenian territorial
demands is belied by the fact that no mention is made of any past
treaty that requires Armenia to renounce such rights. Rather than
abandoning Artsakh or Western Armenia, Pres. Sargsyan raised for the
first time in his last week remarks the depopulation of the Armenian
region of Nakhichevan, after Soviet authorities relinquished it
to Azerbaijan.

5) Armenia and the major powers have rejected Turkish demands that the
Armenian Constitutional Court "correct" its January 12, 2010 ruling
which limited Turkey’s exaggerated interpretations of the Protocols.

The Court insisted that the pursuit of Genocide recognition cannot
be abandoned, and Artsakh’s status cannot be negotiated with Turkey
due to the bilateral nature of the Protocols.

6) Turkish leaders have no reason to protest against the Armenian
Court’s reference to the Preamble of the Constitution on pursuing
the recognition of the Armenian Genocide. This Preamble is based on
Article 11 of Armenia’s Declaration of Independence which has existed
since 1990, long before Turkey first opened its border with Armenia.

Indeed, Turkey’s leaders were well aware of this provision before
signing the Protocols in 2009.

7) Turkish officials have falsely stated that the Protocols
acknowledge the Treaty of Kars of 1921, which Soviet Armenia was
forced to sign. There is no reference to the Kars Treaty in the
Protocols. Furthermore, the Constitutional Court of Armenia ruled that
only those treaties that have been ratified by the present Republic
of Armenia are valid.

8) Rather than achieving its lofty objective of "zero-problems with
neighbors," the Turkish government, by signing the Protocols, has
created a serious rift with neighboring Azerbaijan, where no problem
existed before!

9) It is noteworthy that Turkish officials have not expressed any
objection to Armenia’s demand that Turkey be the first to ratify the
Protocols. This is a humiliating imposition on Turkey as it implies —
for good reason — Armenia’s lack of trust in Turkey!

10) Likewise, Turkish leaders have not responded to Armenia’s threat
to rescind its signature should Turkey not ratify the Protocols by
the end of March — one month before April 24! This is yet another
humiliating imposition by Armenia on a country whose leaders espouse
grandiose neo-Ottoman fantasies!

The foregoing 10 points demonstrate a serious credibility gap between
the Turkish government and its own public as well as the international
community. Ankara has tried to deceive everyone within and outside
Turkey by creating the false impression of wanting to normalize
relations with Armenia. Turkish officials have no one but themselves to
blame for this predicament. They thought that by bluffing they could
extract more concessions from Armenia! It did not work. They have
now fallen in their own trap and no one is too eager to rescue them!