RUSSIA KEY PLAYER ON KARABAKH – US ANALYST
Aliyah Fridman
news.az
Feb 18 2010
Azerbaijan
Ronald Grigor Suny News.Az interviews Ronald Grigor Suny, Charles
Tilly collegiate professor of social and political history at the
University of Michigan.
Will Kazakhstan’s chairmanship of the OSCE help to bring about a
Karabakh settlement?
The intractable Karabakh problem cannot be solved without comprise
between Armenia (and Karabakh) and Azerbaijan. Neither side is really
able to make concessions, given public opinion and the limited
legitimacy of the two governments. Therefore, outside powers will
decide ultimately, as in the conflict between the Israelis and
Palestinians, whether there will be a resolution of the conflict.
Kazakhstan might play a positive role as a mediator, but in the final
analysis Russia is the key player.
What do you think of Russia’s activity on a Karabakh settlement? How
sincere are Russia’s efforts?
Russia is the most important power, but the question is, does it have
positive incentives to settle the issue at this time.
Do you think that the US really is interested in stability in the
South Caucasus and a Karabakh settlement?
The United States has been weakened in the region after the
Russo-Georgian War; Turkey has more pressing issues, as does Iran.
Could Azerbaijan’s membership of NATO help to enhance stability in
the South Caucasus?
Any move of any South Caucasian state toward NATO will be looked
upon negatively by Russia and would jeopardize its position in the
final resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Russia should consider
that settling this issue through compromise (de facto Armenian rule
with de jure Azerbaijani sovereignty) would put the issue of NATO on
the back burner.
Ronald Grigor Suny is director of the Eisenberg Institute for
Historical Studies and Charles Tilly collegiate professor of social
and political history at the University of Michigan; he is also
emeritus professor of political science and history at the University
of Chicago.