DEPENDENCE DAY
By Tom Balmforth

Russia Profile
id=International&articleid=a1266520246
Feb 18 2010

Bagapsh Might Not Really Be a Moscow Puppet, but His Current Isolation
Gives Him Little Choice

On a trip to Moscow on Wednesday Sergey Bagapsh, the president of
the rebel region Abkhazia, inked a raft of deals with his Russian
counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, including one that will establish a joint
military ground force in the breakaway Georgian republic. Georgia
winced and NATO wagged its finger. The ten bilateral deals, apparently
signed to improve Abkhazia’s security, include plans to upgrade an
existing Russian base. Bagapsh also said the breakaway republic hopes
to join the Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia Customs Union.

Days after president Bagapsh was inaugurated for his second term
as president of the breakaway Georgian republic, he embarked on a
three-day visit to Moscow. He was received by Dmitry Medvedev at the
Kremlin yesterday to commemorate 200 years since Abkhazia, on one of
a number of past occasions, was absorbed into the Russian empire.

In the run-up to this historic moment, the leader of the breakaway
republic made some appropriate – and somewhat far-fetched – suggestions
of how to further interweave Russian and Abkhaz futures, for instance
bringing Abkhazia into the Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan Customs Union
(even though neither Minsk nor Astana have recognized Abkhazia as a
sovereign state). Bagapsh also suggested that restrictions might be
lifted to allow Russians to buy up Abkhazia’s prize real estate on the
shores of the Black Sea where the Soviet elite used to go on vacation,
the Kommersant news daily reported.

During the meeting, the leaders signed in a raft of deals
on bilateral cooperation between Russia and the rebel
region, recognized only by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and
speck-on-the-map-in-the-middle-of-the-Pacific- Ocean Nauru.

Among other things, the presidents agreed to renovate the existing
Russian military base at Gudauta, 37 kilometers north of Sukhumi,
where 1,700 Russian troops are presently stationed. According to the
deal, the base on the shores of the strategically important Black
Sea will then host a "joint" ground force for the next 49 years. The
accord will be renewed automatically every 15 years from then on,
Itar-Tass reported.

The ten accords were promptly condemned by a disgruntled West. "All
agreements reached between Russia and the regions of Georgia are
invalid," said Carmen Romero, the deputy spokesperson for NATO.

Meanwhile Irakli Tuzhba, a spokesperson for the Abkhazian Foreign
Ministry, insisted that the base and Russian troops are necessary to
provide security.

Alexei Malashenko, a Caucasus expert for Carnegie Moscow Center,
said he wasn’t at all surprised by the news, but that it guarantees
Russia’s future in the country. "This basically is a permanent treaty.

It means that Russia will remain on the territory of Abkhazia as a
military presence," said Malashenko.

There are currently 4,000 Russian military servicemen stationed in
Abkhazia, Tuzhba said, but when asked how this will change with the
establishment of a base and a joint ground force, he declined to
comment. "I think the contingent will be increased if it becomes
necessary, but there is no need at the moment, so the military
contingent is not increasing," he said.

Both Medvedev and Bagapsh were full of warm rhetoric during their press
conference and keen to use weak points in cooperation as building
blocks in their relationship. While for instance admitting that the
$130 million bilateral trade between Abkhazia and Russia is somewhat
paltry, Medvedev said "it is only the beginning, the first phase in
developed trade links and the starting point for further work." In
fact the two leaders hope to sign in a further 22 deals to expand
cooperation, they said. Bagapsh even revealed that Abkhaz railways will
soon come under the full management of the Russian Railways company.

So is Abkhazia happily slipping from shaky pseudo-independence,
unrecognized by the vast majority of the international community, into
increasing dependence on Russia? Although this appears to be the only
way to interpret the events of Wednesday, it would be misleading to
see Bagapsh as a Moscow puppet, said Sergey Markedonov, an independent
political analyst and expert on the Caucasus. This has been clear,
he said, since Bagapsh won Abkhazia’s presidential elections in 2004,
despite the Kremlin directly backing his rival. But the trouble for
Bagapsh at the moment is that he has no other option, said Markedonov:
"if five or six European countries did support Abkhazia, then maybe
Bagapsh would favor European integration."

"[Abkhazia] is not going to beg anyone to recognize it," Bagapsh said
on Tuesday. So far Russia has kindly undertaken the job of lobbying
for Abkhazia’s "legitimacy." But it was a dubious amount of legitimacy
that was bestowed upon Abkhazia’s sovereignty when Moscow coaxed Nauru,
an island of 11,000 people, into recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia
in return for $50 million (150 million rubles) of humanitarian aid.

These additions are bound to do little to change Abkhazia’s situation,
so does Sukhumi have to continue fully relying on Moscow? Abkhazia
might find an alternative source of support in Ankara. Several analysts
suggest that Turkey may come to recognize Abkhazia’s independence
because of its large Abkhaz diaspora. "Turkey is ready to establish
special relations with Abkhazia. I don’t know if they will recognize
Abkhazia next year, but nonetheless they recognize the special position
of Abkhazia," said Malashenko.

To that extent, NATO members and Georgia are not the only countries
to be wary of Russia expanding its military presence in Abkhazia. "I
think Turkey is disappointed with this," said Malashenko. Turkey has
recently become increasingly influential in the Black Sea region. "The
Kremlin sees Turkey as a big rival as far as all conflicts and problems
in the region are concerned. Traditionally, Russia has played the
role of mediator in the ‘frozen conflict’ of Nagorny Karabakh, but
now Turkey is getting more involved," he said. Whether Turkey’s hand
could drag Abkhazia out of its total dependence on Russia is, however,
still unclear.