TURKEY AND ARMENIA: ZERO PROGRESS: RELATIONS ARE GROWING FROSTY AGAIN

The Economist
splaystory.cfm?story_id=15549523
Feb 18 2010
UK

WHEN the Turkish government signed a deal with Armenia last October,
it looked like a clear achievement for its policy of "zero problems"
with its neighbours. The old foes agreed to establish relations
and open their common border, which had been sealed by the Turks
in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan, during its nasty war with
Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly Armenian enclave. The deal
offered the hope of burying the ghosts of the past by setting up a
joint committee of historians to investigate the mass slaughter of
Ottoman Armenians in 1915.

But ancient enmities are not so easily cast off. Just a day after
the deal was signed, Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
said that it could not be implemented until Armenia withdrew from
Nagorno-Karabakh, which it has occupied since the war. No matter that
the agreement made no mention of the conflict.

Now Turkey is throwing a fresh tantrum. The Armenian constitutional
court recently approved the agreement on the grounds that it satisfied
the founding principles of the state, which include seeking worldwide
recognition of the 1915 tragedy as genocide. Fearing any such moves,
Turkey has demanded that the court retract its reasoning. Many think
the Turkish government, squeezed between proud nationalists at home
and outraged Azerbaijanis abroad, is seizing on the Armenian court’s
word to justify its qualms. Armenia has sent the deal to parliament
for approval.

Turkey looks isolated. America, its most important ally (and the
deal’s biggest backer), has taken Armenia’s side. Russia argues that
Turkish-Armenian relations should not be linked to Nagorno-Karabakh,
a view shared in Washington.

Yet the deal is not universally backed in Armenia. In making its
judgment, the constitutional court may have been responding to hardline
nationalists, who are furious that their government has agreed to
recognise Turkey’s borders. (They claim that parts of eastern Turkey
belong to an Armenian "historical homeland".) The president, Serzh
Sargsyan, has now declared that ratification will be held up until
the Turkish parliament votes on the deal.

America is watching closely. If the deal collapses, the way would
be left open for Congress to pass a resolution recognising the 1915
killings as genocide, something it has long threatened. This in turn
could trigger anti-American feelings in Turkey strong enough to leave
Ankara feeling that it has no choice but to retaliate. One option
would be to kick the Americans out from the strategically located
Incirlik airbase.

The comfort is that ordinary Turks and Armenians are ignoring their
leaders and building friendship on their own terms. Turkey’s privately
owned Su TV recently launched an Armenian-language news programme. And
business between the two countries, despite their closed border,
is growing daily, via Georgia.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress