ARMENIAN ‘GENOCIDE’ BILL LIKELY TO PASS US HOUSE PANEL VOTE

Hurriyet
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Feb 19 2010
Turkey

A resolution calling for U.S. recognition of World War I-era killings
of Armenians as "genocide" will likely be endorsed in an early March
vote in a U.S. congressional committee, according to analysis of
domestic politics.

Howard Berman, the Democratic chairman of the House of Representatives’
Foreign Affairs Committee, announced early this month that the panel
will vote on the resolution March 4. If the bill passes the committee,
it will go to a final vote on the House floor.

The non-binding resolution would call on President Barack Obama to
ensure that U.S. policy formally refers to the Armenian killings as
"genocide" and to use that term when he delivers his annual message
on the issue in April – something Obama avoided doing last year.

Turkey has been warning that any formal U.S. genocide recognition,
either in Congress or by the administration, would lead to a major
and lasting deterioration in U.S.-Turkish relations.

Similar resolutions passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee in
2000, 2005 and 2007, but never reached a floor vote because of strong
pressure in Turkey’s favor applied by the administrations of former
presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

But this time, the situation may be more dangerous for Turkey,
according an analysis of the lawmakers involved, which shows that
the committee’s present composition is not in Ankara’s favor.

Out of the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s current 46 members,
23 lawmakers, mostly Democrats, voted for a similar "genocide"
recognition bill in 2007. Fifteen others, mostly Republicans, voted
against it, two declined to vote and six are new members who will
be voting on this matter for the first time. Out of these six new
members, two are cosponsors of the new genocide resolution and will
certainly vote for its endorsement.

Compared to the situation in 2007, when the measure passed with a
26-21 vote, this time 25 lawmakers seem to be inclined to vote for
the resolution and 15 others seem to be inclined to vote against
it. The situation with the remaining six remains unclear.

Political fight

In addition, many Republicans voted against the genocide resolution in
2007 under the influence of the Republican Bush administration. This
time, amid the political fight between the Democratic Obama
administration and the Republicans, some Republicans on the committee
might be tempted to vote for the "genocide" measure just to put Obama
in a difficult position in terms of ties with critical ally Turkey.

Second, Clinton and Bush played the U.S. national security card to
thwart the "genocide" bills of their times, and Obama has thus far
not resorted to this measure at all.

"Instead of following his predecessors Clinton and Bush in using
the national-security argument against the ‘genocide’ recognition,
President Obama last year tied his non-use of the word to a
normalization process between Turkey and Armenia," said Bulent
Alirıza, the director of the Turkey Project at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C..

"As that process is now stalled, Obama is in a difficult position,
which the Armenian diaspora and the Armenian government now seem to
be eager to exploit," Alirıza added.

The Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers signed in October a
set of agreements under which Ankara and Yerevan would set up
normal diplomatic relations and reopen their land border. But the
normalization process is now faltering. The Turkey-Armenia accord
needs to be ratified by the parliaments of the two neighbors before
implementation, but there is no indication of when either nation
would bring the deal to its parliament.

The problem that lies at the root of the issue is the unresolved
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkey’s
close friend and ally. Turkey first wants to see progress toward a
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict before opening its border
with Armenia. And the Armenians are hinting no sign of this.

Nagorno-Karabakh, a mostly Armenian-populated enclave inside
Azerbaijan, and parts of Azerbaijan proper have been under Armenian
occupation since a war in the early 1990s. As a result of this war,
Turkey has refused to set up normal diplomatic relations with Yerevan
and has been keeping the land border with Armenia closed since 1993.

‘Murtha factor’

U.S. diplomats are urging the Turkish government to implement the
reconciliation process without any preconditions, saying that in
the absence of this action, "genocide" bills in Congress may be
unstoppable.

This time around, Turkey also lacks the "Murtha factor." In October
2007, when the last "genocide" bill came close to a House floor vote,
Democratic Rep. John Murtha, seen as a very influential spokesman
for the U.S. military and national security community, condemned
the resolution effort. His Oct. 17, 2007, speech was a game changer,
prompting many Democratic lawmakers to withdraw their support from
the bill. Eventually Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a staunch
backer of the bill, had to shelve a floor vote indefinitely.

But Murtha died in early February at the age of 77, so there is no
"Murtha factor" in Turkey’s favor now.

Finally, there is a general perception in Washington that amid
Turkey’s worsening relationship with Israel, Ankara is moving closer
to Iran. "This perception won’t help Turkey in congressional matters,
most notably on this resolution," said another Washington-based
analyst who declined to be named.

If the resolution passes the Foreign Affairs Committee on March 4,
its backers will seek a House floor vote shortly before April 24,
commemorated in the United States as a Remembrance Day for the Armenian
killings of the last century. Some analysts suggest that in this case
the Obama administration may once again revert to the national-security
card. But whether such a move will succeed remains to be seen.