EXPERTS: TURKEY IS UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE NORMALIZATION OF RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA

Trend
Feb 19 2010
Azerbaijan

Despite the possible rapid ratification of the Armenian-Turkish
protocols in the Armenian parliament, Ankara is unlikely to continue
the process of normalization the relations with Yerevan, experts said.

"Spirit of the protocols after changes made by the Constitutional Court
of Armenia, does not correspond with the policy of Turkey. The Turkish
government is unlikely to continue the topic of the Armenian-Turkish
protocols in future, Head of the Turkish Center for International
Relations and Strategic Analysis Turksam, Sinan Ogan, said.

The protocols on the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations will
be submitted for a preliminary discussion in the Armenian parliament’s
Standing Committee on Foreign Relations on February 19, the National
Assembly Committee on Foreign Relations chairman Armen Rustamian said,
PanARMENIAN.Net. reported.

Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Ahmet Davutoglu and Edward
Nalbandian signed the Ankara-Yerevan protocols in Zurich Oct. 10.

Diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey were broken due
to Armenian claims of an alleged genocide and its occupation of
Azerbaijani lands. Their border closed in 1993.

On January 12 Armenia’s Constitutional Court confirmed that obligations
reflected in the Armenian-Turkish protocols correspond with the basic
law of the country. However, there is no need for a joint commission
that will investigate the events that occurred during the Ottoman
Empire in 1915, and that Armenia would never back down the requirement
of recognition of the so-called "genocide."

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned if the Armenian
Constitutional Court does not reverse its decision on the protocols
between the two countries, the relations between Ankara and Yerevan
may be corrupted.

According to experts, the reason that the procedure for ratifying
the protocols was so prolonged, is that the party most likely will
not continue the process of normalization, despite external pressure.

Four months have passed since the signing of Armenian-Turkish protocols
in Zurich. Hope for the normalization of relations between the two
neighbors has already disappeared, commentator Guillaume Perrier told
Le Monde, InoPress reported.

Turkish foreign policy was very naive with regard to Armenia. They
believed that they can trust Armenia in the issue of protocols,
and built the entire foreign policy on this assertion, Ogan said.

"However, Armenia does not agree with resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, and has not tried to maintain the spirit of the protocols
in general, amending the item on genocide. Afterwards, Turkey is
unlikely to continue the process of normalization with Armenia",
Ogan told Trend News over phone from Istanbul.

The fact that the Armenian-Turkish protocols have not been ratified
and discussed in the Turkish Parliament, will only deepen the already
existing "crisis of confidence", Armenian Center for National and
International Studies Director Richard Giragosian said.

"There is a deep gap between the two sides, as Armenia is quite
prepared to execute the conditions of the protocols. Turkey now seems
to be striving to find political reasons to get away from this,"
Giragosian told Trend News via e-mail.

However, according to observers, even if the Armenian parliament
ratifies the protocols, one can hardly expect the same action from
Turkey.

According to Ogan, Armenia will do its utmost to continue to put
pressure on Ankara and gain time. However, Armenia does not agree
with resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and has not tried to
maintain the spirit of the protocols in general, amending the item on
"genocide". It was a reason for Turkey to think about the advisability
of talks, experts said.

"Right now, Armenia is trying to hold out until April, by ratifying
the Protocols in its parliament. Afterwards, the pressure will be
made on Turkey by Western observers, Ogan said.

Despite the fact that the Armenian political elite called Turkey for
ratification prior to the procedure in its parliament, I am sure that
Armenian parliamentarians will do it sooner.

However, now foreign observers will not be able to influence Turkey’s
decision, Giragosian said.

"Status of the Protocols is now a hostage of Turkey’s domestic policy.

The fact that the fate of the protocol now depends on progress in
Turkey’s domestic policy, also means that neither the Americans nor
the EU, Russia, even Armenia can affect the outcome," Giragosian said.

Even if the Armenian parliament ratifies the Armenian-Turkish
protocols, we can hardly expect an equivalent response from the
Turkish parliament, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins
University Director Svante Cornell said.

According to Cornell, one must take into account the fact that if
the Armenian parliament ratified the protocols, it will be another
step to increase pressure on Turkey, which seeks Yerevan.

"Pressure on Turkey will grow, but despite this, Ankara is unlikely to
continue the process of normalization of the Turkey-Armenia relations
without solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," he said.

R. Hafizoglu contributed to this article.