ME IS NOT ME, THE SIGNATURE IS NOT MINE OR HOW ARMENIA IS GOING TO OPEN THE BORDER WITH TURKEY
Nurani

Today
ytics/62045.html
Feb 19 2010
Azerbaijan

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan keeps on showing external
peacefulness toward "Turkey."

He stated in a rather incoherent speech at London’s Chatham House that
the Zurich protocols have been forwarded to the Armenian parliament for
ratification. Armenian media described in detail how the parliamentary
speaker will launch a commission that will review these protocols.

However, whether Sargsyan was able to secure popularity as a
"peacemaker" still remains an open question. First, Turkey forwarded
the protocols to parliament several months before they did so in
Armenia. And it is up to the independent parliament to ratify them
until Armenia withdraws from Azerbaijan’s occupied lands to include
them in the agenda or not.

Second, Armenia has consistently pointed out that it will consider
the accords only after Turkey ratifies them. So, it remains unclear
whom and of what sending the protocols in the Armenian parliament is
supposed to say. Moreover, statements in the style of "after you,
gentlemen!" are not practiced in developed countries. It can be
decided only in consultations between the president and parliamentary
speaker. Journalists and political scientists can argue that the
country will ratify the accords only after the opposite side does so.

Presidents never make such statements especially from the rostrum of
the Chatham House.

Sargsyan seemed quite funny when he assured that the ratification
of the protocols will face no problems. So, the Armenian leader has
put himself in a trap – now he must either abandon his promises to
"ensure the ratification" and expect a positive verdict from the
Turkish Grand National Assembly, or "push" the ratification in his
own parliament without waiting for Turkey to do so and again to
break his own promise not to ratify the protocols until a positive
verdict is received from Ankara. In short, in the best-case scenario,
the Armenian president will look like an unserious politician giving
conflicting and patently unrealistic promises.

But this is not the main thing. The Armenian government has approved a
law providing for Armenia’s withdrawal from international treaties. No
one doubts that this primarily applies to the Armenian-Turkish
accords. Armenia still threatens that if Turkey drags out time and
does not ratify the protocols at least next week, it will be offended
and withdraw from the process.

You can, of course, speculate about "political will for reconciliation"
and who has it more the other – the Turkish or the Armenian
president. But a fact remains: Ankara has displayed this political will
in full from the outset. But if overcoming the "historical stereotypes"
and "age-old hatred" were the key goals, this problem might actually be
addressed through football matches and protocol smiles. Today, however,
it is clear that obstacles in the negotiation process could hardly be
solved with the help of a festive concoction by Turkey’s First Lady
Hayrunisa Gul and a stadium adorned with Swarovski crystals. Armenia
may try to prove that the Zurich protocols make no single mention of
the Karabakh conflict and the withdrawal of troops from Azerbaijan’s
occupied lands as much as it can, but there is no doubt that these
protocols provide for the recognition of borders and a joint study
into controversial historical events.

Armenia turned out to be absolutely unready for this since in this
case it would have to remove the image of Agri-Dagh from its coat of
arms and reconcile with the fact that "Western Armenia" is eastern
Turkey. And those who participated in a procession to the monument
"to the victims of genocide" every year on April 24 knew that the
"genocide" will not work, and most of the documentary evidence will
turn out to be common and flagrant fakes. Knowing this, they decided
to withdraw from the negotiations loudly slamming the door.

Frankly, these are not new tactics. The Armenian president, who is
also the president of the Armenian Chess Federation, Sargsyan knows
what lies behind the expression "to turn over the board." Though he
knows this, he is unlikely to say it out loud. So, as a rule, they
act when the situation on the board has no way out.