THE ECONOMIST: TURKEY LOOKS ISOLATED. AMERICA HAS TAKEN ARMENIA’S SIDE

ArmInfo
2010-02-19 15:55:00

ArmInfo. The Economist has published an article entitled "Is the
Turkey-Armenia deal unravelling? Relations are growing frosty again."

The author writes: "When the Turkish government signed a deal with
Armenia last October, it looked like a clear achievement for its
policy of "zero problems" with its neighbors. The old foes agreed
to establish relations and open their common border, which had been
sealed by the Turks in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan, during
its nasty war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly Armenian
enclave. The deal offered the hope of burying the ghosts of the past
by setting up a joint committee of historians to investigate the mass
slaughter of Ottoman Armenians in 1915.

But ancient enmities are not so easily cast off. Just a day after
the deal was signed, Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
said that it could not be implemented until Armenia withdrew from
Nagorno-Karabakh, which it has occupied since the war. No matter that
the agreement made no mention of the conflict.

Now Turkey is throwing a fresh tantrum. The Armenian constitutional
court recently approved the agreement on the grounds that it satisfied
the founding principles of the state, which include seeking worldwide
recognition of the 1915 tragedy as genocide. Fearing any such moves,
Turkey has demanded that the court retract its reasoning. Many think
the Turkish government, squeezed between proud nationalists at home
and outraged Azerbaijanis abroad, is seizing on the Armenian court’s
word to justify its qualms. Armenia has sent the deal to parliament
for approval.

Turkey looks isolated. America, its most important ally (and the
deal’s biggest backer), has taken Armenia’s side. Russia argues that
Turkish-Armenian relations should not be linked to Nagorno-Karabakh,
a view shared in Washington.

Yet the deal is not universally backed in Armenia. In making its
judgment, the constitutional court may have been responding to hardline
nationalists, who are furious that their government has agreed to
recognise Turkey’s borders. (They claim that parts of eastern Turkey
belong to an Armenian "historical homeland".) The president, Serzh
Sargsyan, has now declared that ratification will be held up until
the Turkish parliament votes on the deal.

America is watching closely. If the deal collapses, the way would
be left open for Congress to pass a resolution recognising the 1915
killings as genocide, something it has long threatened. This in turn
could trigger anti-American feelings in Turkey strong enough to leave
Ankara feeling that it has no choice but to retaliate. One option
would be to kick the Americans out from the strategically located
Incirlik airbase. The comfort is that ordinary Turks and Armenians
are ignoring their leaders and building friendship on their own terms.

Turkey’s privately owned Su TV recently launched an Armenian-language
news programme. And business between the two countries, despite their
closed border, is growing daily, via Georgia."