AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL ANALYST: ARMENIA’S CURRENT AUTHORITIES ALREADY UNDERSTAND TIES WITH NEIGHBORS ARE VITAL
Z. Ahmadov
Today
2229.html
Feb 22 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political analyst Rasim Agayev.
The Armenian armed forces launched military maneuvers in the occupied
Azerbaijani territories a few day ago. Earlier, a skirmish, which
killed three Azerbaijani soldiers, occurred on the front line. How
you bind these events?
This is nothing, but Armenia’s attempts to obstruct process of peaceful
settlement of the Karabakh conflict. If we trace publications in the
Armenian press, we can draw two conclusions:
First, it is now widely believed that Armenia’s foreign policy leads
the country to a standstill. Even some of the Armenian ruling elite has
already taken steps to change country’s policy towards their Turkic
neighbors. There are certain forces in Yerevan which want to take
the country out of the vicious circle of Armenian expansion. They
already understand futility of their policy and want to make some
corrections in the relations with neighbors.
Secondly, corrections in Armenia’s policy to mitigate relations with
its Turkic neighbors are extremely disadvantageous for some forces.
Many experts say that Armenia still has forces that are more realistic
about the situation in the country and may be more "tractable" in
dialogue with Turkic neighbors. Do you think a time will come Armenia
will act more sensibly?
Armenia’s foreign policy which has landed the country in an unenviable
position, as well as world economic crisis which has hit Armenia very
strongly makes one have a different look at the situation. There is
some changes even in Armenia’s politics towards Turkey and Azerbaijan.
It is another question whether Armenia will have enough courage to
turn these changes to real steps for the complete reformation of
relations with its neighbors.
Many opposition members were arrested in anti-government rallies in
Yerevan recently. What can happen in Armenia next in connection with
the unrest?
Serzh Sargsyan’s party does not want to compromise to Levon
Ter-Petrosyan’s party in no case not only because of the fact that
the current Armenian President has obligations to his voters, but
also with the fact that he has obligations to external forces.
I do not think that periodic demonstrations against the ruling
authorities suggest that Ter-Petrossian enjoys broad support in the
country. Serzh Sargsyan regime is still ruling in Armenia, and he
holds main levers of power. The factor that plays against Levon
Ter-Petrosyan is the that during his presidency he was one step
away from the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. But, as you know,
Levon Ter-Petrosian surrendered to the military junta.
It should be noted any power comes on a wave of nationalist rhetoric in
Armenia. But, once on top, it understands that it is impossible to feed
the country only by ideology. In order to achieve social prosperity it
is vital to establish good relations with neighbors. In my opinion, the
current authorities in Yerevan have already understood this objective
reality. They will have to make concessions in the Karabakh issue,
how hard it may seem.
At the moment Armenia’s parliamentary commission is discussing the
Armenian-Turkish protocols. What is your forecast about its future
destiny?
I think Armenia will delay ratification of the Zurich protocols
and will try, as before, to have any impact on the U.S. Congress
in terms of recognition of "Armenian genocide". But Congress is
unlikely to recognize the "genocide". Strategic relationship with
Ankara are of great interest for Washington. Most likely, President
Barack Obama will come up with another term in order to not use the
word "genocide". Washington is not interested in adopting this bill,
because in this way, it would deprive itself of the lever of pressure
on Ankara.
On the other hand, the U.S. is not less than Armenia is interested
in opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. Therefore, Armenia’s slow
moves to ratify the Zurich protocols may irritate Washington.