MURAT MERCAN – ARMENIA SHOULD WITHDRAW FROM "OCCUPIED TERRITORIES" TO ADVANCE NORMALIZATION

201 0/02/23 | 13:28

Region

Murat Mercan, Chairman of the Turkish Parliament’s Foreign Affairs
Commission, has stated that it is unlikely for Turkey to ratify
the Turkish-Armenian Protocols given the level of "uncertainty"
surrounding them.

Mr. Mercan, in an interview with Today’s Zaman, said, "There is no
clarity about how the protocols will be interpreted. Without this
clarity, we should not expect the Turkish Parliament to ratify the
protocols."

Here are some of the more relevant excerpts of the interview.

How do you view assessments that the Armenian constitutional court’s
decision on the protocols will not have a negative impact on the
process and that the connection to the Karabakh issue will not be
accepted?

When we look at the Armenian constitutional court’s ruling, we see that
there are clear provisions in the text stating how the protocols can
and cannot be interpreted. After all, it is an agreement between two
countries. It is not an international agreement. Only those countries
that are party to an agreement are bound by that agreement.

We should also analyze the Armenian constitutional court’s decision
from the perspective of international law. International legal experts
need to assess the issue. While there are some lawyers and some
circles who say the court’s decision does not constitute the basis of
the protocols, others have different opinions. In this respect, there
is uncertainty over the issue. At best there is uncertainty. In this
kind of a situation, the conditions for implementing an international
bilateral agreement are not completely clear. Take, for example, the
issue of opening borders. The court’s decision clearly states that
"opening the borders does not mean recognition of the Treaty of Kars."

Will this uncertainty affect Parliament’s ratification of the
protocols?

I think it is very difficult for Turkey to ratify the protocols under
these conditions because there is some level of uncertainty. There is
no clarity about how the protocols will be interpreted. Without this
clarity, we should not expect the Turkish Parliament to ratify the
protocols. While there is a negative attitude regarding two critical
factors from Turkey’s perspective, I don’t think it is likely for
Turkey to accept just opening the borders.

How will the uncertainty be resolved?

I believe there have been some attempts in the international arena
and some diplomatic attempts to resolve this uncertainty. I don’t
know what kinds of diplomatic solutions these will produce, but I
think we need to give these efforts some time. We will be able to make
assessments once a solution is devised. The second point is that the
international world must consider a very important point, and that is
when changing the balances in the Caucasus, it is important to pursue
a balance that will benefit everyone. Disrupting other balances while
trying to change one balance is like shaking a hornet’s nest. There
are two main problems in the Caucasus that directly concern Turkey.

One of these is relations between Turkey and Armenia, and the other
is solving the problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan. When we look
at these two balances, if the ratification of the protocols between
Turkey and Armenia is going to exacerbate problems between Armenia
and Azerbaijan or severely jeopardize Azerbaijan’s national interest,
then the world should not want it, either. In other words, it’s very
important to maintain a balance.

Are there benefits in the process that will satisfy all three sides?

If we want a win-win-win situation then it has to be in the following
way. It must be beneficial for Armenia to contribute to solving these
two problems.

It’s important to clearly see what Armenia will gain if the border is
opened, if diplomatic relations are established and if the problems
between Armenia and Azerbaijan are solved. The advantages that
are obvious as of now are Armenia’s border to the international
world will be opened, Armenia’s foreign trade will increase and
Armenia will be added to the natural gas and oil pipeline routes
originating from Azerbaijan. All these will significantly contribute
to Armenian’s economy. Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev clearly told
me that once problems were solved, good economic relations would be
established between Armenia and Azerbaijan as well. Armenia is going
to obtain a major advantage in terms of economy. On the other hand,
Turkey will have made a certain level of progress on the recognition
of its borders and on the genocide issue. If the problem is solved
and Armenia withdraws from Azerbaijan’s territories, Armenia will
not lose anything. That is because the international community sees
Armenia as an occupier and does not approve of its occupation.

Moreover, the UN has also determined that Azerbaijani territories are
under Armenian occupation. In other words, the territories that Armenia
is occupying are not recognized as Armenian soil. It is identified as
a grey zone under occupation. Armenia’s withdrawal from these areas
would not constitute a loss.

What will the status of the mountainous Karabakh region be?

At present it is an unrecognized region that has no status. If
Karabakh’s status were to be determined with these developments, the
power balances in the region would be changed in favor of everyone,
and everyone would benefit. No one would lose anything. If this
does not happen, in other words, if relations between Turkey and
Armenia normalize but other balances are not considered, then the
international community should be unhappy about this as it will become
harder to solve the problems, and conditions that will most likely
lead to conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan will develop. In
other words, the risk the international community will face if the
problem is not completely solved will be greater than the risk they
currently face. Countries in the region, Europe, America and Russia
should not want this possibility. It is for this reason that we should
not look at the issue as one that only concerns Turkey and Armenia
because this would be an incorrect point of view. The failure to
show the necessary level of caution and sensitivity could lead the
countries mentioned above to sacrifice their own strategic interests
and policies for domestic policies. A prudent person would realize
the need for caution. Strategic interests should not be sacrificed.

How will this process affect Nabucco?

This is one of the risks I was mentioning earlier. The West’s energy
security will be at risk.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress