ARMENIA HAS TO TIMELY RESPOND TO INCOMING IMPULSES, ALSO USING THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TURKEY AND ISRAEL
ArmInfo
2010-02-24 11:59:00
Interview of ex-Defense Minister of Armenia (1999-2000) Vagharshak
Harutyunyan with ArmInfo News Agency
Mr. Harutyunyan, what have we arrived at as a result of the
Armenian-Turkish process which has been lasting over a year?
To understand and assess what is taking place today in the
Armenian-Turkish and Karabakh processes, one should return to the
goals put earlier by the participants in these processes. The main
generator and initiator of opening of the Armenian-Turkish border
is the USA. The European Union in the face of France also took an
active part in it. Russia and the participants in the process in
the region are not more than factual participants. Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov’s words are evidence of it. He said that
participation of Russia in the Armenian-Turkish process is just its
presence in the procedure of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols signing
in Zurich. Russian Prime Minister Putin said the same. We perfectly
understand that the interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the region
coincide, for this reason the Karabakh conflict and opening of the
Armenian-Turkish border are mutually connected, though the Armenian
authorities refuse it so that not to damage the process. You see,
The Armenian-Turkish reconciliation as a process agreed in advance,
which is headed by superpowers which trace their own interests. the
USA and Turkey also have one and the same interest – raising of the
NATO and their role in the region, and finally forcing Russia out
of the region as much as possible. As it is impossible to rise their
influence not forcing the rival out of the South Caucasus. Their task
is obvious. In this context opening of the Armenian-Turkish border
is the key task of the Armenian as well as Turkish diplomacy. For
instance, Turkish defence minister said over his meetings in the
USA that their task is to incline Armenia to the western way fully
forcing Russia and Iran out of the South Caucasus.
In this case, what is Russia interested in in terms of unblocking
of the Armenian-Turkish border? Is it really interested in SCR entry
in Turkey?
Russia is interested just in participation, in the opportunity to
protect its interests, and not only the economic ones. I would rather
ask a question: what does opening of the border with Turkey give us?
Open communications, which anyone, who will take the trouble, claim
of it, are not so much important for us as they seem. Everything is
simple, as the cheapest road from Armenia to Turkey runs through the
railway to Batumi, and then by either highway or seaway to Ankara,
Istanbul, etc. If you study attentively all the substantiations
provided by the authorities, you will see that they are ridiculous,
unreasoned and unexplainable. All the pluses and minuses had to
be taken into account when making such a decision. If the economic
benefits are so great that we have to make some political concessions,
they must be apparent, however we do not have them ultimately, while
they are available for the poor border districts of Turkey.
Perhaps, the point is in high cost of the Georgian transit?
The Turkish transit will cost much more expensive for us than the
Georgian one, because there is no railway to Trabson Turkish port,
and the cheapest way to Europe runs through Batumi.
Then what is the reason of the Armenia authorities’ interest in the
relations with Turkey?
The authorities hope for Ankara to act more constructively in the
Karabakh issue if it gets our concessions concerning the Genocide
recognition and the Armenian-Turkish border. As we see, it does
not happen, as opening of the border to Turkey is a change of the
geopolitical situation. However, we perfectly understand what Turkey
aims at. Ankara has one task today – to become the leader in the
region, and it cannot achieve it without normalization of relations
with Armenia. So, establishment of normal relations with Armenia, that
may further lead to strengthening of its influence in both Armenia
and the region, is stemming from its interests. However, everything
here depends on how much Armenia will conduct the right policy and
how much it will be strong as regards the internal political situation.
Azerbaijan strives to preserve Artsakh in its structure assisted
by Turkey, using opening of the border as a lever of pressure on
Armenia, while Turkey has another viewpoint on this. It is interested
in preservation of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and
maximum weakening of Armenia only after closing the issues of the
Armenian-Turkish relations, recognition of the borders and the
Genocide, however Azerbaijan opposes to this approach.
Nevertheless, Armenia will benefit from opening of the Turkish border.
What should we expect in this context in the near future?
Opening of the Armenian-Turkish borders has just one positive
moment, i.e. an opportunity to have an alternative way for political
maneuvering. However, in that case Armenia would be subjected to
Turkey’s economic expansion and opening of the border may have
very painful aftermaths for our economy and others given the poor
government system in Armenia. It is favorable to Turkey to ratify the
Protocols without the alterations made by the Armenian CC, since the
latter made ratification of the Protocols absolutely senseless for
Turkey. Therefore, Ankara will be fighting to neutralize the decision
of the Armenian CC by all the possible means and persuade its own
opposition and Ilham Aliyev that ratification is favorable. In case
Ankara succeeds in realizing this complex of measures, we will get
an open border.
Do you think beginning of a new aggression by Azerbaijan against the
NKR and Armenia is possible in case of opening of the Armenian-Turkish
border?
One should not rule out probability of a war, since it always exists.
Another question is how much high it is. Estimating the
military-political situation in the region, I can say it is minimum,
moreover, a war is possible only in case of inadequate evaluation of
the situation by Aliyev. The share of the Great Britain, the USA and
Turkey is present in all the oil contracts of Azerbaijan. All of them
perfectly understand that gas- and oil pipelines will be destroyed
on the first day of the war, as they are within the grasp of arms of
the Karabakh Army. The war of August 8, 2008 has shown that a new war
will cause new clear delimitation of the states’ positions, that is
unprofitable to Azerbaijan. Moreover, we currently possess all the
means to make both Sumgait and Gyanja, as well as Baku accessible
to our strikes, that is, serious changes took place if we compare
to the situation of 1994, when we established a cease-fire regime in
Karabakh. A collective security treaty has actually come into force.
Today Armenia is CSTO member, as well as rapid deployment forces have
been created, which are ready to deploy in a state which is under a
military threat, while Armenia will be also involved in the conflict
in case of Azerbaijan- Karabakh war. So, Azerbaijan will do it, as
it understands that there will be assistance by Armenia, i.e. there
will also be a conflict on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, that will
automatically involve Armenia in the military actions, as well as
Turkey, which has a military agreement with Azerbaijan and is a NATO
member. All this will lead to collision of the two security systems,
that is undesirable either for NATO and CSTO in the current situation.
So, I think resumption of a war in Karabakh is extremely unlikely.
Confrontation has been recently marked between Israel and Turkey.
However, it is strange that Ankara noticed the depression state of
the Palestinian people just now. How this confrontation may affect
the relations between Yerevan and Tel-Aviv?
Preparation for revision of the areas of influence is going on in
the world now, that will cause a new situation in the world. This
preparation is expressed in smooth movement of the center of
globalization from the West to the East and Asia, that gradually
changes the center of gravity. Naturally, reorientation of foreign
policies of a number of countries happened in this situation, and
everything that Turkey is doing, including its initiative on creation
of Eurasian Union, should be watched just in this context. This
aspiration of Turkey must be also watched in the context of the Iraqi
problem, as well as its plans on creation of Kurdistan in the east
of Turkey. Naturally, Turkey’s plans will further undergo correction
depending on the situation. Armenia must also timely respond to
the incoming impulses, also using the discrepancies between Turkey
and Israel.
Can we speak about a possibility of recognition of the Armenian
Genocide by Israel against this background?
It is unambiguously possible. The fact that the issue of recognition
of the Armenian Genocide in Knesset is already under discussion and
the fact that the Jewish lobby organizations in the USA are united
with the Armenian ones, is already positive.
Is the idea of creation of the Eurasian Union, voiced by Foreign
Minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu, a regular populist statement in
Erdogan’s style or this statement hides something?
Every statement hides something. However, I strongly believe that
Turkey’s current idea will lead nowhere, as it is trying to establish
relations with the Arab and Islam world and is simultaneously in war
with the USA and Israel. On the contrary, Ankara will be immersed in
this regional geopolicy even more, it will be short of resources to
implement such ideas as creation of the geopolitical center. Something
like this happened after the USSR collapse when Turkey rushed into all
the Turk countries of the Soviet Union. I think the same will happen
in the context of Turkey’s idea on creation of the Eurasian Union.
Indeed, there are too many disagreements and areas of influence in
the Middle East region.
An opinion exists that the USA intends to fundamentally change the
status-quo, developed in the region after the August war, through
intrusion into Iran. Do you agree to this opinion?
Actually, the USA have such an intension. The point is in sufficiency
of Pentagon’s resources for its fulfillment. Washington cannot just
solve a complex of the regional issues without solution of the problem
with Iran – this is the first version. The Iranian positions can be
considered as the second version. The third way of the USA is using
of Israel and other anti-Iranian countries of the region in the local
conflict against Iran. The USA will put pressure on Tehran by all these
parameters not to allow creation of a nuclear weapon by Iran, as well
as get the rich gas and oil resources of this country under control. On
the military and political plane, Washington has no resources to affect
Tehran, as the attempt of American intrusion will not be supported
by the US and UN allies. The USA have no such reserves of the armed
forces, since they hardly assure rotation of their contingent in
Iraq and Afghanistan. Therefore, I rule out a large-scale war but
not local pressure which I have already talked about.
So, do you think one should not expect changes of the status-quo in the
region, including in the Karabakh conflict, in view of a war in Iran?
No, I don’t. Today, everyone understands that Azerbaijan will not
make concessions. Taking up a rough stance, Baku will not agree to
the Karabakh status in exchange for the territories. It is also clear
that neither Armenia nor the NKR will agree to Baku’s requirements. The
Armenian party has already shown maximum constructivism, having agreed
to give the territories and having got no principal agreement by Baku
for the NKR independence, however, it has got nothing instead.
Therefore, due to the Madrid principles, the mediators decided to
find an intermediate solution in form of surrender of the territories
around the NKR to Azerbaijan and simultaneous delay of its status
issue for an uncertain time. This is just changing of the status-quo
Washington is striving for. It does not proceed from our interests,
as it means solution of the Karabakh problem at the expense of the
Armenian party, since, having given even 5 regions and having got
nothing instead, we shall twice extend our defense line and the line
of contact, so, we shall have to twice increase our troops on the
line and double the budget, saying nothing of huge expenses for the
echeloned defense. Therefore, I cannot explain the logic of the person
who adopted the Madrid principles. Moreover, I positively perceive
the statement by the authorities, according to which the Karabakh
status must be of high priority, and initially it must be so.
Interview by David Stepanyan, February 18. ArmInfo
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress