RUSSIA WILL NOT FORCE ARMENIA TO MAKE THE FUNDAMENTAL CONCESSIONS – US ANALYST
news.az
Feb 24 2010
Azerbaijan
Shale Horowitz News.Az interviews Shale Horowitz, Professor, Department
of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Do you believe that chairmanship of Kazakhstan in OSCE will be
successful for Karabakh settlement?
No.
Turkey has its own problems with Armenia. Do you think that Turkey
is able to succeed in attempts to solve the Karabakh problem between
Azerbaijan and Armenia?
No. Outside mediation by those not directly involved is largely
irrelevant as long as Armenia and Azerbaijan remain apart on the
fundamental issue of sovereignty over all or most of Karabakh. Only
significant concessions on Karabakh’s status by Armenia, Azerbaijan,
or both will make a peace settlement possible, and neither side looks
likely to make such concessions.
Do you think that the right to self-determination can justify
separatism and occupation by use of force, mass killing and ethnic
cleanings, as was the case in Karabakh?
Everyone must answer this question for themselves. After the fighting
is over, it is never worth it for the losers, whereas the winners
can often justify it. But remember that both leaderships decided to
fight in the beginning, before they knew the outcome for certain.
And what do you think about activity of Russia in Karabakh settlement?
How sincere these Russia’s efforts are?
It is possible that Russia could benefit from a peace settlement. But
Russia will not force Armenia to make the fundamental concessions,
because this would weaken and alienate a close and loyal ally.
Do you think that US really interested in stability in the South
Caucasus and Karabakh settlement in particular or all these problems
are closer to Russia as a neighbor of this region?
The US has little leverage except carrots like aid and investment.
These are not significant enough to affect the calculations of Armenian
and Azerbaijani leaders.