SOCIAL REVOLT WILL HAPPEN

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11:27:13 – 24/02/2010

Interview with the ARF parliamentary member, economist Ara Nranyan

The Minister of Economy Nerses Yeritsyan stated about the end of the
economic crisis. As an economist, do you share this opinion?

At the beginning of the crisis the same economy minister said that
Armenia will overcome the crisis in one year and a half, before
the rest of the world. Last statement of the minister leads us
to the conclusion that the government simply used the crisis to
avoid economic reforms. We have repeatedly stated that the economy
has numerous problems- high level of monopolization, low level of
economy’s diversification, dependence on import and great trade
deficit etc. Such serious issues can be solved only as a result
of consistent economic policy. We did not expect our government to
achieve the result we waited for. We just hoped the government would
take lessons from the crisis and will make the reforms the economy
of our country needs. But the anti-crisis moves of the government
pursued only one purpose – to gain time. Early on, the government
has attracted more than one and a half billion dollars, which were
used to cover the government deficit of 2009-2010 year. The rest of
the money is the reserves on account of which the government tries to
keep the currency market. If without correcting all these shortages,
the minister of economy says that we overcome the crisis shows that
the government did not make any conclusion.

That is, you say that they are just lying to people?

Previously, we said two-digit economic growth but in result of a
thorough examination it turned out that it was determined by the
construction. Industry and agriculture procured only two percent
of growth. Growth was observed only in the service sector and
construction, and construction was carried out by private transfers.

Now, to point the 2 percent of growth and to talk about the rise
is not correct. We have experienced such a deep crisis, that any
motion will be considered as rise. And we want structural reforms,
sustained development of production, improvement of competitiveness,
reduction of the trade balance. Talking about the rise is to protract
time, and wait until the next crisis. I think it will not take long:
if not by the end of this year, early next year, the government will
be compelled to take a new debt.

If the gas price enhancement is added to the economic crisis which
will bring about the price increase of a number of goods, can we
state that a social crisis is expected for Armenia?

It is my deep conviction that the biggest crisis today is
psychological. Our society must realize that the system of values,
which was based on money, went bankrupt. In the first place must be
public and national interests. 2010 will be difficult: gas price hike
will lead to higher prices for other goods. The purchasing power
of citizens has fallen: in 2009, an intensive inflation started,
and income of citizens did not increase. Even official data of
private transfers declined by 40%. In 2010, inflation will continue,
indexation will not, monopolization will remain, and standard of
living will decline.

Should we expect a social explosion?

If this continues, the striking of taxi drivers, truck drivers,
members of gold markets, others will join them. Mass protests will
grow. Unfortunately, in Armenia there is no tradition of protecting
workers’ rights. The energy of the people was directed at the solution
of national problems, and the tradition of social struggle is not
formed. But the more the government will promote the neo-liberal
ideas, the greater will be the awareness of society about the need
to protect their interests. So, a social revolt will happen because
people simply do not have anything to live with.

Interview by ARMAN GALOYAN