AZERBAIJAN WARNS OF "GREAT WAR" IN SOUTH CAUCASUS

Khaleej Times
.asp?xfile=data/international/2010/February/intern ational_February1213.xml&section=international
feb 25 2010
UAE

(Reuters) 25 February 2010, BAKU – Azerbaijan warned on Thursday the
risk of conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh was
rising and that a "great war" in the South Caucasus was inevitable
if Armenian forces do not withdraw.

Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, backed by Christian Armenia,
threw off rule by Muslim Azerbaijan in fighting that broke out as
the Soviet Union headed towards its 1991 collapse.

An estimated 30,000 people died before a ceasefire was agreed in 1994,
but the threat of fresh conflict is never far away in the strategic
South Caucasus, a region criss-crossed by pipelines taking oil and
gas to the West.

"Diplomats could not achieve concrete results for 15 years, and
Azerbaijan cannot wait another 15 years," an Azeri Defence Ministry
statement cited Minister Safar Abiyev as telling France’s ambassador
in Baku, Gabriel Keller.

"Now it is up to the military, and this danger is gradually
approaching. If the Armenian occupier does not liberate our lands,
the start of a great war in the South Caucasus is inevitable."

Oil-producing Azerbaijan frequently makes threats to take
Nagorno-Karabakh back by force, but tensions have increased in the
past year over moves by Armenia and Azeri ally Turkey to open their
border, which Ankara closed in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan.

A trio of mediators from the United States, France and Russia say they
are making progress in talks between the presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia, but diplomats say neither side appears ready to commit
to painful concessions in order to seal a peace accord.

Forces on the frontline frequently trade fire, and last week Azerbaijan
said three of its soldiers had been shot dead by Armenian snipers. The
Nagorno-Karabakh authorities denied any clashes had taken place.

Faced with a backlash from Azerbaijan — a key potential supplier
for Europe’s planned Nabucco gas pipeline — Turkey has backed away
from opening its border with Armenia since signing accords in October
last year, saying Armenian forces should first pull back from lands
captured during the war.