AZERBAIJAN GAINS FROM TURKISH-ARMENIAN ACCORDS
Leyla Tagiyeva

news.az
Feb 25 2010
Azerbaijan

Vugar Seidov It is Azerbaijan that has gained from the Turkey-Armenia
protocols, not Armenia, according to political scientist Vugar Seidov.

Seidov, who is also the correspondent in Germany for Azerbaijan’s
state-run news agency AzerTAj, disagreed with remarks made yesterday
by Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Centre for National
and International Studies.

Seidov accused the Armenian political scientist of trying "to discern
victory in obvious defeat".

Giragosian said that Armenia had gained two specific victories in the
Turkey rapprochement process: the deterioration in relations between
Azerbaijan and Turkey; and the omission of any mention of Karabakh
from the protocols.

He said that Russia, the United States and Europe had told Turkey
that the normalization of relations with Armenia and resolution of
the Karabakh conflict were two separate issues, but Seidov said this
was the other way around.

"Let’s look at what we had before the signing of the protocols and what
we have today. Before the protocols, we had the closed Armenian-Turkish
border, frozen negotiations on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict,
friendly Azerbaijani-Turkish relations without a clear picture of the
future position of Ankara on the Armenian-Turkish border issue and,
finally, low gas tariffs. Now, let’s see what we have today mostly
thanks to the protocols: the Armenian-Turkish border is still closed;
the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations have intensified, which is
bothering Yerevan; the fraternal relations between the Azerbaijani
and Turkish people have strengthened, thanks to numerous senior
Turkish officials commenting on the impossibility of opening the
borders without progress in the Karabakh conflict, which was unheard
of before the protocols; and Baku has doubled gas tariffs, which in
turn has forced Ankara to increase its prices.

"Has Azerbaijan benefited? Certainly, it has: the border is closed,
the Karabakh process has intensified, friendship with Turkey whose
leaders started to make promises more frequently than before has
strengthened and gas revenues have grown. Has Turkey lost? It has lost
almost nothing. Moreover, it has boosted its relations with Russia
and raised its role in the South Caucasus, which can be seen in the
discussions of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict between Turkish and
world leaders in Washington, Moscow, Paris and Brussels. Has Armenia
won? I don’t see any dividend. On the contrary, the protocols have
spoiled relations with the diaspora and worsened the split inside
the country, while failing to reach the main goal of opening borders."

The United States, Russia and Europe can deny a link between the
opening of the border and Karabakh, but Turkey’s opinion carries more
weight, as it is Turkey that will open the borders, Seidov said.