TENSION IN AZERI-IRAN TIES OVER RUSSIAN INTERESTS – OPPOSITION OFFICIAL

Azadliq
Feb 21 2010
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani opposition member believes the latest tension in
Azerbaijan-Iran relations is part of Western campaign against Iran.

Sulhaddin Akbar, member of major opposition Musavat Party, says
Azerbaijan determines its policy in line with Russian one which was
recently seen to share the Western concern over Iran’s nuclear issue.

Akbar also says that Azerbaijan will gain some economic benefits and
settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict in return for joining
the anti-Iran coalition. The following is the text of report by
Azerbaijani opposition newspaper Azadliq published on 21 February
and headlined "Relations with Iran ruined for the sake of Russia";
subheadings as published:

Tense attitude of the Azerbaijani authorities towards Iran is becoming
evident over the recent period. This can be seen on official newspapers
and TV channels which carry anti Iranian reports. Even using strong
language in the campaign is not excluded. It should be noted that
such a tendency started after a rally, held by religious people in
the centre of Baku, was violently dispersed. Official propaganda said
that Iran stood behind the mentioned rally. Mosques in the country
received warning which says that some sabotage groups passed into
Azerbaijan from Iran and therefore outsiders should not be allowed
into mosques. We put our questions about the topic to Sulhaddin Akbar,
chairman of [the opposition] Musavat Party’s assembly.

[Correspondent] Mr Sulhaddin, what is behind the present anti-Iranian
campaign? Is Iran really trying to stimulate sabotage groups in
our country?

[Sulhaddin Akbar] Indeed, it has been a long time that tense relations
between Iran and Azerbaijan continue. Now, it has reached the point
when it’s impossible to hide anything and they become visible. Tension
around Iran’s nuclear program plays an important role here. However,
internal political processes in Iran also have some role in uncovering
the situation. It seems that Azerbaijani authorities have dared to
openly demonstrate their position against Iran. I would say that
Russia’s change of policy towards Iran plays a significant role in
Azerbaijan’s position. Russia is already sharing the world community’s
concern about Iran’s nuclear programme. It’s no coincidence that
Russia spoke against Iran following the officials of a big state,
like France. International community is making joint efforts in this
regard. Russian, US messages received by Azerbaijan go on the same
direction. It looks like Azerbaijan makes a joint decision and acts
together with Russia.

We are unable of neutralizing pressure expected from Iran

[Correspondent] According to some assumptions, Azerbaijani actions
are closely linked to recent visits of Israeli officials to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan was convinced to support coalition against Iran. How true
is this? And if Azerbaijan is going to be actively involved in the
anti Iran coalition, what would be the consequences for our country?

[Sulhaddin Akbar] As I said, Azerbaijan’s shift in policy is linked
with Russia. The USA, Israeli promises also do play some role. But
most important for Azerbaijan was the change of Russian position
which happened. Severe sanctions are expected against Iran. It
seems that this time sanctions will not be just for the sake of
sanctions. It seems that negotiations are underway with Azerbaijan
in this connection. Because if severe sanctions are to be applied
against Iran, co-chair countries [of OSCE Minsk Group – USA, Russia,
France] play a significant role here. As a country which borders Iran,
Azerbaijan is also of great significance. On the other hand, the USA
and Israel have serious interests in Azerbaijan. If there is going
to be a military intervention into Iran, Tehran will harm Western
interests in the region. Azerbaijan is likely to receive such harm.

>>From this point of view, even if Azerbaijan did not join anti-Iran
coalition, it would be obliged to take counter measures in the event
of intervention or application of sanctions against Iran. Then,
Azerbaijan would unwillingly join the processes. Because Azerbaijan
is in no position to neutralize the pressure and therefore, I believe
that it was a smart decision to support the international community.

[Correspondent] Until recently Azerbaijani authorities pursued a
different policy towards Iran. What would Azerbaijani authorities be
promised in return for joining the anti-Iran coalition?

[Sulhaddin Akbar] Indeed, Azerbaijani authorities use to pursue
different policy towards Iran. There would be no anti-Iran campaign
on media without the approval from the top. This indicates that a
political decision has already been made with regards to Iran.

Official Baku acts in line with Moscow policy. I believe that
Azerbaijan received some guarantee to prevent possible pressure from
Iran. I also believe that Azerbaijan was pledged the settlement of
Nagornyy Karabakh conflict or some economic dividend which is why
the authorities re-considered their policy. Azerbaijan was under
Western pressure to demonstrate precise position on Iran. At present,
Azerbaijan may well change its policy together with Russia. It would
cost a price for the Aliyev regime, if Azerbaijan remained in its
previous position after Russia changed its own position.

Aliyevs’ regime understands that they can pay a price for confronting
the West on the election year

[Correspondent] There is also some contradiction in Azerbaijani
policy. The Azerbaijan authorities have announced recently that they
intend to sign gas sale contract with Iran.

This can be viewed as Baku’s tactical move. This is to provoke
the West. In return, political support to Azerbaijani authorities
had significantly weakened. The Aliyev regime has always thought of
protecting the political power. [Parliamentary] elections will be held
in Azerbaijan this year. If there are promises made to Azerbaijani
authorities, then it’s more about political support concerning the
elections. The Aliyev regime has already realized that they can pay a
high price for confronting the West on the election year. Therefore,
they changed their positions following Russia.

Of course, if sanctions were imposed against Iran and if there would
be consequence, military intervention can be on the agenda. Because
Iran is very close to obtaining a nuclear weapon. From this point of
view, Azerbaijan would attract more international attention, both
during imposing of sanctions or military intervention. Azerbaijani
authorities do realize this. The USA will prefer its own interests
if it finds itself on the crossroads of choice. Therefore,
democratic forces of Azerbaijan should analyse the situation and
trust the people. Azerbaijan needs national movement to shift
from anti-democratic regime into democratic regime with available
conditions.