WHY DOES ARMENIA RUSHES WITH THE PROTOCOLS BY TRIPPING UP FUTURE FRIENDS?

Trend
Feb 25 2010
Azerbaijan

Trend News European Desk Commentator Elmira Tariverdiyeva

Last weeks and next ones will be crucial for Armenian-Turkish
relations. The protocols on the normalization of relations signed in
Zurich were submitted to the National Assembly of Armenia.

The Armenian government took this step despite assurances that the
Armenian Parliament will consider the protocols only after passing
the ratification procedure to the Turkish Majlis.

Moreover, the President of Armenia in the nearest future can take a
risk and go further – to submit protocols on the immediate unilateral
ratification.

According to Samvel Nikoyan, National Assembly deputy speaker,
Armenia can take the initiative and approve the documents without
waiting for Turkey, EurasiaNet.org reported.

"I think it would be much better if Armenia continues the initiative,"
Parliamentary member led by President Sargsyan’s Republican Party of
Armenia, Nikoyan, said at a press conference on Feb. 16.

Despite the indignation of Armenia’s internal forces concerning
the Armenian President’s actions, Sargsyan must take the risk for
several reasons. Of course, if the Majlis does not get the protocols
in the nearest future, Armenia will immediately leave the process I
should say that risk is fully justified given the reaction of foreign
observers at a "friendly gesture" of Armenia.

The fact is that Armenians must maintain the image of a
"long-suffering, deprived and betrayed" nation. By presenting itself
before the international community as an initiator, Armenia gains
points.

More than one year it will talk about the unfairness of the world in
which the agreements are not followed, even at the level of the signed
documents. Unfortunately, even now, many Western observers lose sight
of important moment of the Armenians’ behavior towards the documents.

On Jan.12, Armenia’s Constitutional Court confirmed that the protocols
complied with the country’s Constitution. It stressed that there is no
need for a joint commission that will investigate the 1915events that
occurred during the rule of the Ottoman Empire, and that Armenia will
never retract the requirement of recognizing the so-called "genocide."

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that if the
Armenian Constitutional Court does not reconsider its decision on
the protocols between the two countries, relations between Ankara
and Yerevan can worsen.

Now, Turkey simply refuses to ratify the protocols. The most important
point of the protocols was deliberately refuted by Armenia’s principal
judicial organ. At the same time, the U.S. Congress has just in time
raised the genocide issue. However, it is unlikely to affect Ankara’s
position, which has ambitions not only in the South Caucasus but also
in the Middle East.

Turkey is developing a unified strategy with Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.

It is not profitable for it to remain in positions of ever standing
in line at the EU countries and absolute ally of the United States.

Ankara needs independence now more than ever. It is moving towards
it steadily.

Considering that any vote of the U.S. Congress, which will try to
reflect the historical facts of the 1915 events in a distorted manner,
will be a severe blow to Turkish-American relations, Armenians
are openly demonstrating good will, without worrying about the
consequences.

A bold decision not to wait for Turkey and first ratify the protocols
must have a positive impact on Armenia’s international image. The
expected unilateral ratification in the Armenian Parliament will
portray Turkey as an unreliable partner.

There is also another important point in the protocols. The Armenian
president and his government have the lowest legitimacy in the
country’s modern history. Therefore, many of President Sargsyan’s
foreign policy actions are desperate and try to deflect attention from
internal problems and shortcomings that have resulted from unresolved
political crisis in the country.

Enhancing dramatic statements and decisive actions of the Armenian
government has recently called upon to deflect attention from the
near anniversary on March 2. That day nine protesters were killed
and about 300 injured during protests against the present government
after the presidential elections in 2008.

In short, with the late ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols,
Yerevan is pursueing its own interests, caring little about a real
warming of relations with Ankara and tripping up future "friends."