ARMENIA: PARLIAMENTARY VOTE DEALS BLOW TO TURKISH RECONCILIATION CHANCES
Gayane Abrahamyan

insightb/articles/eav022510d.shtml
2/25/10

Armeni a is ready to back out before it enters into a binding
reconciliation agreement with its long-time foe, Turkey.

The Armenian parliament on February 25 approved legislative amendments
by a 70-4 margin that make it easy for the country’s leaders to
suspend or abrogate international treaties. In effect, the amendments
enable the Armenian government to withdraw from protocols signed last
October with Turkey that govern a process to normalize relations. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The protocols will enter
force only after they are ratified by the two countries’ respective
parliaments. So far, neither has done so.

Progress toward ratification has been at a standstill in recent weeks.

[For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Officials and political analysts said that the amendments to the
Law on International Treaties adopted on February 25 were a way for
Armenia to hedge its bet on the reconciliation process. ""We will
continue the process, the Armenian side wholeheartedly wishes for
the protocols to become reality. However, we have to have necessary
mechanisms for any possible scenario, and, come the need, the law
will be applied to the protocols as well," Armenia’s Foreign Minister
Edward Nalbandian told EurasiaNet.

Representatives of the Heritage Party and the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (ARF), two opposition parties with seats in parliament,
said they weren’t fully satisfied with the amendments. Even so, the
ARF voted with the governing coalition to approve the amendments. The
Heritage Party opted to oppose them.

"This is a step forward, however, according to this draft only
the executive branch will have the power to suspend the signing and
ratification processes of international agreements, and we demand that
the legislative branch also have this right," ARF MP Armen Roustamian
told EurasiaNet.

A Heritage leader, meanwhile, described the amendments as a "bad
exit strategy."

"We believe that the draft needs a number of improvements and
additions and because this is only a half-step; we do not approve
of half-steps," the head of the Heritage faction, Stepan Safarian,
stated in parliament.

Stepan Grigorian, the director of the Analytic Center on Globalization
and Regional Cooperation in Yerevan, took issue with the timing of the
parliamentary vote. He suggested that it unnecessarily put Yerevan on
the defensive in what is now shaping up in a public-relations contest
to assign blame for the stalemate in the reconciliation process.

"Armenia could have simply ratified [the protocols] and waited for
Turkey’s steps, and if Turkey failed [to ratify], then ? we could have
appeared before the international community with a clear conscience,"
Grigorian told EurasiaNet. "In this case, Turkey can use the [adoption
of] the amendments to say that Armenia is getting ready to pull-out."

Ratification of the reconciliation protocols remains a hot topic
in Armenia. Earlier in February, National Assembly Deputy Speaker
Samvel Nikoian hinted that Armenia might take the first move toward
ratification. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Nikoian’s statement generated a sharp reaction from representatives
of the Prosperous Armenia party, a member of the governing coalition.

Prosperous Armenia leaders have insisted that Yerevan should consider
ratification only after the Turkish legislature has already done so.

At this point, many with ties to the governing coalition are sceptical
about ratification. "I consider it most unlikely that Armenia might
ratify the protocols first," former Justice Minister David Harutyunian
told EurasiaNet.

Editor’s Note: Gayane Abrahamyan is a freelance reporter based
in Yerevan.