Presently Turkey is in no mood for Protocols
In case of military coup in Turkey, Armenia will get a very
unpredictable and dangerous neighbor, which, by the way, has always
been such.
26.02.2010 GMT+04:00

Thus, the Armenian-Turkish Protocols reached an impasse, or rather
fell into the trap set by Azerbaijan and the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) in Turkey. Detentions of senior military
officials, who are accused of the coup attempt organized in 2003 may
lead to two consequences: either there will really be a military coup,
or the secular government will be finally replaced by an Islamic one.
In either case the country will have to face instability and setback
that will immediately reflect on ratification of the Protocols by the
Turkish Parliament.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ By the way, most apparently the Turkish Parliament
was not going to ratify the Protocols anyway. As always Ankara pinned
its hopes on blackmail and threats, without delving into the essence
of the problem. But the fact is that for Turkey the Protocols could be
the only road to Europe. It was an issue of secondary importance
whether Armenian-Turkish relations would be normalized. The essential
point was opening of the border, but Ankara did not realize or refused
to realize this importance. Detentions of military officials began
just as the country’s leadership came to the conclusion that
international community can no longer be influenced and it has firmly
decided to push ratification of the Protocols. In case of military
coup in Turkey, Armenia will get a very unpredictable and dangerous
neighbor, which, by the way, has always been such. But now the danger
is much greater and no one can foretell how the confrontation between
the generals and the AKP will end. As a result of the possible coup,
we’ll witness a new round of Kurdish-Turkish confrontation in close
proximity to the Armenian border. A more detailed inspection of the
situation brings up several questions, the first of them being why the
coup, which was prepared in 2003, was not suppressed then. Or is it
possible that the AKP had kept it `in reserve’ to use in case of
unexpected developments in the region? As long as Turkey was rapidly
gaining weight and with the help of Russia and the United States it
had a chance to really become a regional power in near future, the
army had taken the government side. Or, at least, so it seemed.
Moreover, the army, so true to the precepts of Kemalism, favoured
Turkey’s integration into the EU. What is more, after the August war
in South Ossetia, it was Turkey that revived the completely forgotten
Platform of Stability in the Caucasus. And it was Turkey that for some
reason decided she could settle the Karabakh conflict and become
co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group.

The blame for such behavior of Ankara should be assigned to the
superpowers, which hurried to declare Turkey a bridge from East to
West, from Islam to Christianity. And only the French President kept
to his position. According to him, there is no place for Turkey in
Europe. Roughly the same happened 100 years ago, when with the support
of then powers Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom the Ottoman
Empire got involved in the World War I. As a result the Young Turks
slaughtered almost the entire Christian population of the Empire, and
these were not only Armenians, but also Greeks and Assyrians. And then
Ataturk came, and Turkey began to build something of a `civilized’
state, which was collapsed 50 years ago, after the first military
coup. Afterwards there were three more – in 1971, 1980 and 1997. So
there is nothing particularly surprising – military coups in Turkey
are a custom that started with the Janissaries, who overthrew the
sultan then.

They were especially the military coups that led the powers to show a
more restrained attitude towards Turkey, because nobody knows what
consequences next coup can have. But, be that as it may, nothing may
happen this time. In the face of the threat of opening the
Armenian-Turkish border, or, more specifically, in the face of the
superpowers’ support for Armenia, the army will not decide on an open
confrontation. But an excellent excuse is chosen for the protocols.
However, Ankara should keep in mind that Armenia will not be seeking
excuses for denunciation of the Protocols. According to the supplement
to the `Law on international treaties’ adopted the other day, the
Armenian President is granted such a right. So, the future of the
Protocols is rather dim. If Ankara is reluctant to obey direct signals
from Washington, it means Turkey has decided she can do what she
pleases. This position is fundamentally vulnerable and entails
far-reaching consequences. Under the present circumstances there is
nothing good for Ankara. And no matter how hard the Azeri media tries
to pass the desirable for reality, the Turkish press is soberer in
this sense. And when Mehmet Ali Birand writes that Turkey and
Azerbaijan have found themselves in diplomatic isolation, he knows
what he says.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan
«PanARMENIAN.Net» analytical department