PFA RELEASED A REPORT
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17:30:20 – 01/03/2010
Consistent with our mission and operational objectives, and responding
to events unfolding in Armenia, PFA published two special reports,
which were very well received by a broad range of stakeholders. The
first report, entitled "2008 Armenia’s Presidential Election: Select
Issues and Analysis," provided a thorough and multi-disciplinary
analysis of events surrounding the February 19, 2008 Presidential
Election in Armenia. The Report provided analysis of the February
election and the civil and political disturbances that ensued. The key
issues analyzed in the Report included the election irregularities
and human rights abuses observed before and on February 19 as well
as the events of March 1-2 that followed; the role of civil society
in the aftermath of the election; and the political developments that
were critical for understanding the way forward. The Report provides a
detailed statistical analysis of the election outcome and illustrates
the massive deviations from the norm through identifiable forms of
election fraud, including ballot stuffing and vote steeling.
Responding to the growing concerns about the potential implications
of the world’s financial crisis on Armenia’s fragile economy, PFA
produced its second report on "Implications of the World Financial
Crisis for Armenia’s Economy." The Report begins with a sobering
discussion of global economic conditions and their causes. It predicts
that the existing adverse conditions in the world’s financial markets
and real economies will have a strong impact on Armenia’s economy
regardless of how isolated its relevant sectors are from the rest
of the world. The Report offers a detailed account of Armenia’s
vulnerabilities to the world’s crisis by focusing on the flow of
remittances, trade- and investment-related factors, financial sector,
and official financial assistance. In conclusion, the Report offers a
set of specific recommendations that are likely to reduce the impact
of the adverse global conditions on the Armenia’s economy.
To build on the analytical work laid out in the 2008 Election Report,
PFA embarked on an analysis on the Yerevan municipal election held
on May 31, 2009. The objective of the report was to examine the
statistical properties of the data-including by comparison with
2008 and 2007 election data, where relevant-to reveal election
irregularities. Similar to PFA’s assessment of the 2008 presidential
election, we found that the outcome of the May 31, 2009 municipal
election in Yerevan did not produce any surprises. As in the previous
report, the focus here was on indications of fraud that can be
detected by statistical inference: ballot stuffing and artificial
augmentation of vote counts. All four empirical tests utilized in
the analysis offered evidence of fraud and irregularities, including
but not limited to ballot stuffing and stealing of opponents’ votes
during the vote count, all of which should be taken into serious
consideration by all stakeholders involved.
PFA’s first State of the Nation Report focused on the relations between
Armenia and its worldwide Diaspora. As part of the series that intends
to take assessments of developmental and national security issues
of importance for Armenia and the Diaspora, the report produced an
evaluation of the engagement between the two halves of the nation
following the inception Armenia’s independence movement in 1988. It
offers a comprehensive review of Diaspora’s engagement in Armenia
on three critical dimensions: economic development, governance
and public sector reform, and civil society strengthening. While
acknowledging the enormous effort required and the sacrifices made
to support Armenia during early years of independence, the review is
critical to what has been achieved on these important dimensions and
provides reasons behind these outcomes. Finally, the report makes the
case for a collective action, which-if calibrated properly and with
the focus on right values and objectives-could help better address
the developmental and geopolitical challenges faced by the nation.