IRAN-ARMENIA GAS PIPELINE TO ALLOW THE REPUBLIC TO TAKE PART IN NABUCCO

ArmInfo
2010-03-04 17:10:00

Interview of Deputy Director of ‘Noravank’ Scientific and Educational
Fund, Sevak Sarukhanyan, with ArmInfo news agency

Moscow received Ankara’s consent to the South Stream passage via
Turkey’s territorial waters over Erdogan’s recent visit to Russia.

What role did the talks on the Karabakh problem play in this?

When linking the Karabakh problem to the South Stream, Turkey to
some extent, as these two issues are not connected at all. In Moscow
Erdogan spoke of Karabakh, South Stream, Iran, Israel, Azerbaijan, but
it does not mean that all these issues are connected with each other.

I think Ankara’s attempt to link the Protocols to Karabakh somehow
is an attempt to recover from its current disadvantageous state.

Therefore, Ankara is currently trying to enlist the support of at
least one of the three OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states to find at
least one legitimate ground to connect the Armenian-Turkish relations
and Karabakh peace process, but Turkey has failed to so far, and I do
not think it will manage to do this. I think Armenia is also actively
working with Russia, the United States and France to suppress these
attempts. On the other hand, all these countries are coordinating
their actions to suppress Ankara’s attempts to connect itself with
the Karabakh process. They realize perfectly that such connection will
negatively affect both Armenian-Turkish and Karabakh peace process.

May Nabucco and South Stream projects co-exist in case of their
construction?

Yes, Nabucco and South Stream have all chances for co-existence,
since Nabucco is a gas pipeline oriented at circulation of mainly
the Iranian gas, and in prospect, Turkmen and Uzbek gas, as well
as the Azerbaijani one which is already supplied to Turkey via the
Baku-Erzrum gas pipeline. A false opinion exists that if Armenia
solves its problems with Turkey and Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani
gas will immediately run via the territory of Armenia to Nabucco,
however, it is not so, as the pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey has
already been built. The Nabucco gas pipeline section, which connects
Azerbaijan and Turkey, is Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum and no new gas pipeline
will be built. As for the South Stream, it is meant for circulation
of the Russian gas, which will not go to Europe via Nabucco, since it
will considerably weaken Russia’s positions, having connected it with
new transit-countries, and deprive it of significant political tools.

However, Nabucco will be built, as Europe strongly needs the Iranian
and Middle-Asian gas, and it is very important for Armenia to
participate in the project somehow.

How?

There is an Iran-Armenia gas pipeline. And Nabucco is a project which
is outlined quite indefinitely. One thing is obvious – gas will be
collected in Erzrum and pumped to Europe, moreover, gas may reach
Erzrum in various ways. Therefore, increasing of the volume of the
existing gas pipeline between Iran and Armenia with further extension
to Turkey may become one of the branches feeding Nabucco with Iranian
gas. Armenia has all the prospects from this point of view, however,
the most important prospects in the Armenian-Turkish process for
Armenia are connected with the opportunity to export electric power
to Turkey. Construction of a new power unit with capacity of 1060 MW
will shortly be launched in Armenia, and ArmRusgasprom will shortly
put into operation the biggest in the region Hrazdan TPP unit with
capacity of about 450 MW. Construction of a new big HPP on the border
with Iran will also start in Armenia, and there are opportunities for
development of the hydraulic power industry. That is, with opening
of the Turkish market, Armenia will get good opportunities to make
the power system one of the locomotives of the Armenian economy with
all the accompanying factors.

Can one say that the volume of Russian investments in energy projects,
alongside with investments in SCR development, allow Moscow to
consider the issue of opening of the Armenian-Turkish border a
foregone conclusion?

I think this issue is a foregone conclusion not only for Russia but
also for others. Another matter is that the border may be opened in
three months or maybe in 5 years, but it will be opened anyway.

Correspondingly, all Russian investments in Armenia are long-term
and strategic. The same concerns the Armenian NPP: construction of
the new power unit in Metsamor will take 6 years. So, even if the
border is opened not tomorrow, but in 5 years, Russian investments
in the Armenian nuclear energy will be justified. Moreover, even if
the Armenian-Turkish border remains closed, which I rule out, Armenia
has enough potential to increase electricity export to Iran where the
demand keeps on rapidly growing. Over the last 20 years electricity
consumption in Iran has been growing by 8.5% per year. This is an
extremely high index. Alongside with this, population is growing and
the country is being electrified. This might sound strange but in
1979 40% of Iran’s territory was not electrified at all. The power
generating capacities of Armenia belong to Russian companies but
they remain Armenian since the energy sector is closely connected
with geography and Russians will never move these capacities. So,
Russian investments in Armenian energy are of strategic importance
for us and meet our national interests.

The USA, which Nabucco project actually belongs to, is interested in
Nabucco without Iran. How may the Iranian gas become its part?

It is really so. However, even the US energy minister said at a summit
in Sofia in 2009 that Washington understands the EU aspiration for
Iranian gas and has no arguments counterbalancing that aspiration. I
think that Nabucco has become a European rather than American project.

Does it mean that today the USA may attack Iran only by infringing
the European interests?

The USA may do this as all these projects feed Europe, not the
United States, and Washington may fully ignore the interests of
Europe. The Near East and the Persian Gulf, which found themselves
under the US influence in 1960s, have been gradually coming out of
this influence over the last 10 years mainly thanks to European and
Chinese investments. Some tendencies of Washington with respect to
Tehran and Beijing are directly interconnected and conditioned by big
Chinese investments in the Iranian energy complex and deliveries of
energy resources to that country.

How will the United States manage to do this in case of Iran if they
fail to rely on the allies’ support?

The matter is that the United States will not conduct a war against
Iran the way it does against Iraq and Afghanistan. I think that
at present completion of the Iranian nuclear project with creation
of nuclear weapon is more realistic that the US intrusion into the
Islamic republic.

Interviewed by David Stepanyan, 2 March 2010, ArmInfo