NEXT GENERATION OF ARMENIANS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REPRODUCE THEMSELVES

ArmInfo
2010-03-03 16:18:00

ArmInfo. In 2009 the birth rate in Armenia grew by 8% with 44,466
births recorded, the head of the Census and Demography Department
of the National Statistical Service of Armenia Karine Kuyumjyan said
during a press-conference today.

She said that last year there were 14 childbirths per 1,000 people,
which is more than in Belarus (11 pro mille), Georgia (13), Moldova
(12), Russia (12.5). Tajikistan has the highest birth rate in the CIS –
31 childbirths per 1,000 people. In Azerbaijan in 2008 the birth rate
was 17.8 pro mille.

Demographer Ruben Yeganyan said that the highest birth rate is
registered in India, Pakistan and a number of African countries.

In the 1970s-1980s the birth rate in Armenia was 25-26 pro mille. In
2001 the index was 10 pro mille. However, in the last years the
index has grown but only 30%-40% of it is due to intensive population
growth. The key cause of this growth is the growing number of women
of reproductive age born in the 1980s when the birth rate was an
average of 75,000 a year. However, in the 1990s the birth rate fell
to 37,000-38,000 a year. Consequently, the reproductive performance
of the generation of the 1990s, who are to ensure reproduction by
the 2020s, will be just 20,000-22,000 childbirths a year.

In order to avoid such a drop, the new reproductive generation will
have to ensure redoubled growth in the birth rate, which is possible
only theoretically.

Dropping birth rate will result in low absolute population size. In
the 1990s this happened because of high migration. Today, Armenia
is facing a situation when mortality rate may exceed birth rate. In
2009 there were 27,528 deaths – 8.5 deaths per 1,000 people. Thus, the
natural population growth made up 16,938. Despite certain growth in the
birth rate, the total fertility rate (number of children that would
be born to a woman over her lifetime) is declining. In the 1990s it
was 2.6 children – i.e. one woman reproduced herself, her husband and
not only. Today, a married couple is unable to reproduce its own self.

In 2009 458 children died before their first birthday against 442
in 2008: 8.5 children per 1,000 against 8.2 pro mille in 2008. This
index depends on the social-economic situation and moral-psychological
atmosphere in the country.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress