US COMMITTEE VOTE ON ‘GENOCIDE’ ONLY START OF A TROUBLED PERIOD

Today’s Zaman
March 3 2010
Turkey

Ankara does not expect US President Barack Obama to intervene to block
a vote on a "genocide" resolution at the Foreign Affairs Committee.

Neither Thursday’s planned vote at a US House of Representatives
committee on a resolution that would recognize the World War I-era
killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks as genocide, nor April 24,
the "genocide" commemoration day, are particular thresholds to be
overcome for Ankara.

Yet, this doesn’t meant to say that Ankara has not been exerting
intense efforts on all fronts for the rejection of the resolution,
believing that its approval would bring ongoing normalization efforts
between Ankara and Yerevan to a "standstill." This is not the first
time that the issue of official recognition of the Armenian genocide
allegations has poisoned ties between NATO member Turkey and the
United States. In 2007, Ankara recalled its ambassador to Washington
for consultations after a US panel approved a similar bill.

"Our efforts are not aimed at doing away with another April 24; they
are dedicated to salvaging the normalization process with Armenia,
which we started with strong determination. That will stands firm.

Doing away with April 24 would be a short-term goal that is not part
of our vision," a Turkish diplomat has stated.

Leading up to the possible approval of the resolution, which would
call on US President Barack Obama to ensure that US policy formally
refers to the events as "genocide" and to use that term when he
delivers his annual message on the issue in April — something Obama
avoided doing last year, highly tense weeks are ahead for Ankara and
Washington since the pressure on Obama will gradually mount.

In the meantime, Ankara apparently doesn’t have high hopes of Obama
intervening in the issue to block the committee vote since the US
president has had to deal with numerous "bread and butter domestic
issues," so that he would not tolerate having an attack by powerful
US-based Armenian diaspora.

"The antidote to long-term effects is regional normalization in
the South Caucasus. It is the eventual success of the normalization
efforts which will strengthen Obama’s hand," the same diplomat said,
speaking on condition of anonymity, when asked whether Turkey might
consider a hasty parliamentary ratification of the two protocols
signed by Armenia and Turkey to give Obama the upper hand ahead
of April 24. In Zurich on Oct. 10, the two countries signed the
"Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations" and the
"Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations."

Ankara has been constantly explaining to Washington that the
normalization process with Armenia didn’t start due to US pressure.

Turkish officials also told US officials that applying pressure to
Turkey has never yielded positive outcomes, the diplomat explained.

While making its point, Ankara cited as an example the Turkish
Parliament’s rejection of a government motion on March 1, 2003 to
allow US troops to open up a northern front against Iraq from Turkey,
thus leading to the references to "March 1 syndrome" when talking
about the bilateral relationship of the two NATO allies.

Despite being prepared for long weeks of "diplomatic gymnastics," the
Turkish capital, nevertheless, asserts that common sense will prevail
at the end of the day and Obama will have a moment of contemplation
after which he will decide to intervene at "the last minute" if
a strong signal for having the resolution on the agenda of the US
House floor emerges, taking into consideration his country’s high
national interests which include Turkey’s vital cooperation in Iraq
and Afghanistan.

Pressure on ties with US There may be certain circles who want to up
the pressure on Turkey through the approval of the resolution, stated
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, while speaking to a small group of
journalists on Monday on a flight to Egypt for an official visit.

"But the nature of Turkey-US relations cannot tolerate such pressure,"
Davutoglu added.

Back in the fall of 2007, a House proposal, which would label as
genocide the killing of Armenians nearly a century ago by Ottoman
Turks, had inflamed US tension with Turkey, which says the death toll
has been inflated and that the Armenians died during civil unrest,
not organized genocide. However, support for the nonbinding resolution
gradually declined after Turkey summoned its Washington ambassador
back to Ankara and several lawmakers spoke out against it.

At the time, there were no normalization efforts between estranged
neighbors Armenia and Turkey. The current ongoing process hit a rocky
patch in January after the Armenian constitutional court upheld the
legality of the protocols but underlined that they could not contradict
Yerevan’s official position that the alleged Armenian genocide must
be internationally recognized.

Apart from deep concerns over the US move, Ankara, however, doesn’t
sound pessimistic for the future of Armenia-Turkey contact. An example
is the "open-minded" bilateral meeting between Davutoglu and Armenian
President Serzh Sarksyan that took place in Kiev last week when the
two attended the inauguration of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

On his way to Egypt, Foreign Minister Davutoglu recalled that the
opposition parties have been criticizing the absence of a clear
reference to the Nagorno-Karabakh territorial conflict between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, and the Armenian recognition of the Gumru and Kars
Agreements that established the Turkish-Armenian border in 1920 and
1921, respectively, within the protocols signed with Armenia.

"You cannot make progress if you lay down conditions. If we attempt to
write down those elements, then [Armenia] will ask for recognition
of ‘genocide’," Davutoglu said, adding that the protocol on the
establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey
actually "confirms the mutual recognition of the existing border
between the two countries as defined by the relevant treaties of
international law."

On the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Davutoglu said that there is an
expression saying "regional peace and stability." "What we wean with
this ‘region’ is obviously not Somalia," he added.