AZERBAIJANI EXPERT: ARMENIA WILL GET NO CSTO SUPPORT IN CASE HOSTILITIES ARE RESUMED
Today
March 4 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political expert Rasim Musabayov.
What is happening in the process of settling the Armenia-Azerbaijan
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Actually, nothing is happening in this process. It seems the
negotiation process is taking a little pauzse, and the sides are
thinking over their reactions on refined version of the Madrid
principles proposed by the Minsk Group
But it was determined in Sochi that the parties will submit their
comments and suggestions in a written form in two weeks. Time has
passed, but there is not any move by co-chairing countries yet. They
also do not hurry to visit the region. What is the reason?
Yes, it’s true. Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said at a press
briefing with his Israeli counterpart Lieberman that although
Azerbaijan has some objection, it is ready to accept the document
proposed at a meeting in Sochi to reach a compromise. He also said
that he had a phone talk with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to
specify whether the Armenian side has expressed its position, made
a clarification or objections to the document on the negotiations’
table. It turned out that the Armenian has not yet voiced its official
reaction.
It seems that the Sargsyan-Nalbandian tandem is in a very tough
situation. So far, they displayed an ostentatious constructivism in
a hope that Azerbaijan will thwart peace agreement with its objections.
But Azerbaijan’s consent forces Armenia to open cards. Armenia does
not want to accept the updated Madrid principles. This is clearly
evident from the comments of the Armenian media.
In Serzh Sargsyan’s recent statement in the Chatham House in London,
where he ignored the latest Minsk Group proposals and instead imposed
biased Armenian version of the problem on the participants, also shows
unwillingness to compromise. However, Armenia does not dare to reject
the Sochi document, offered not only by the Minsk Group co-chairs,
but President Dmitry Medvedev, president of a country that is a patron
of Armenia. Armenia delays time hoping that suddenly the situation
will take a turn in its own favor.
Armenia hopes that Turkey will ratify the Zurich protocols under the
U.S pressure ruining the Azerbaijani-Turkish strategic alliance. In
case of Turkey’s refusal to do so, the Armenians cherish dream that the
U.S. Congress may recognize the so-called "genocide of 1915."Armenia
believes it will be able to derail a peace agreement that does not suit
it without much implications for itself and to preserve status quo.
What are Armenia’s chances to achieve this?
Armenia has very small chances to do this. American congressmen will
face re-election this autumn. Because of this, they become more
susceptible to the Armenian lobby, which ensures votes and money
of the Armenian voters. Washington is not very happy with Ankara’s
stance on Iran, and believes that the Turkish support in Iraq and
Afghanistan could be substantially greater. In addition, traditional
close relations between Turkey and Israel took a bad turn and this
may deprive Ankara of a traditional support for the Jewish lobby in
the United States.
But Turkey also takes action…
Of course. As in the past year, delegation of the Turkish Parliament
plans to visit the U.S. Turkish PM Erdogan and FM Davutoglu have
made warnings in connection with the beginning of the discussion
over the "genocide of 1915." Ankara argues that consideration of
so-called "Armenian genocide" in the Congress committee will fully
torpedoe already stalled normalization process which still has some
perspective. Ankara can also stop flights with Yerevan, make it
difficult for Armenians to obtain visa, to restrict money transfers,
send back illegal Armenian guest workers back to home.
They do not say it in a loud voice, but I believe that it has been made
clear to the U.S. privately that adoption of resolutions unacceptable
for Ankara will have extremely negative impact on US-Turkish
relations. The Parliament can deny the U.S. to use Turkish territory
for the supply and withdrawal of troops from Iraq and restrict use
of Incirlik airbase. It already happened when the Bush administration
undertook the invasion of Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein.
In response to the unwanted resolution of the American congressmen,
the Parliament can take a decision on withdrawal of Turkish troops
from Afghanistan. Turkey can also stop support in the Iranian issue.
Let me remind you that Turkey is a non-permanent member of UN
Security Council and it will take over chairmanship of this important
international body.
In short, resolution on the "genocide of 1915" can throw oil on
wounded consciousness of the Armenians, but not bring them practical
use. Simultaneously, it will cause direct harm to U.S. national
interests. I think that the reasons I have cited are quite obvious to
the U.S. State Department, Pentagon and White House. These reasons
are perfectly able to neutralize attempts of the Armenian lobbying
organizations and the Armenian Caucus in Congress.
Clarity in this issue will come soon. But negotiation on settlement
of the Karabakh conflict have stalled. Confrontational rhetoric is
growing. Can it really lead to resumption of hostilities?
If Moscow and Washington clearly explain to the Armenian leadership
that it makes no sense to delay time, chances of signing a framework
agreement based on the updated Madrid principles are significant.
May-June is deadline for this. Otherwise, growth of confrontation
between Azerbaijan and Armenia is inevitable.
I do not think that large-scale military action will begin
immediately. But the arms race will begin with greater force. The
information war will be stepped up. Shooting can become permanent
on the front line. It is possible that at one point all this will
result in real clashes. The threat to peace can be so dangerous
that it would require intervention of UN Security Council. But this
is unwelcome scenario, which would negate long-term efforts for a
peaceful settlement of the conflict.
May the sides expect real help from their allies? Can Azerbaijan
expect help from Turkey, OIC, GUAM, and Armenia from Russia & CSTO?
There has always been such a support. For Armenians, it was crucial,
because their own resources are not enough to face Azerbaijan. Russia
pumped arms to Armenia, granted loans and the U.S. still continues to
provide financial assistance. But now the situation in Armenia is not
too favorable. Money is given less and less. It has become difficult
to deliver weapons from Russia to Armenia after Georgia severed ties
with Russia.. In addition, Moscow is eager not to jeopardize mutually
beneficial economic relations with Azerbaijan and lose confidence
contacts that it has established with Azerbaijani leadership.
In the event of renewed hostilities Armenia will not receive not only
political and moral, but also military support from CSTO. Even Russia
could not obtain desired reaction from the CSTO during the August war
with Georgia in 2008. During the last year’s vote on a resolution on
the situation in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan in the United
Nations none of CSTO member countries showed solidarity with Armenia
except for Russia. Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
abstained, and Uzbekistan supported Azerbaijan.
As for the Azerbaijan , I believe we can count on Turkey’s support.
Turkey is ready to help Azerbaijan militarily, which is a signal to
those, who believed we will stay alone with our problems. OIC was
mostly providing political and moral support, but separate countries,
like Pakistan, didn’t hide their willingness to act militarily. As for
GUAM, speaking of political support to Azerbaijan, it was high enough,
and all the included countries gave their votes to us in the UN.
Day.Az
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