LARSI CHECKPOINT REOPENS: SO WHAT?
The Messenger
March 3 2010
Georgia
The Larsi checkpoint reopened on March 1, following more than 6 months
of negotiations between Russia and Georgia under Armenian mediation.
Nothing is known about the content of these negotiations: what
was discussed and who asked for what? There has been no convincing
explanation of why this checkpoint has been opened at all, but the
one thing we know for sure is that Georgia will gain nothing from
the reestablishment of a land connection with Russia.
Georgia maintains that the checkpoint has been opened for the sake of
Armenia, under some international pressure. The administration assures
us that opening the checkpoint does not compromise Georgia’s security.
However some analysts challenge this, insisting that under the
existing circumstances an open border with Russia is extremely
dangerous for Georgia.
There are no diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia. Moscow
occupies 1/5th of Georgian territory and the Russian President has
declared Saakashvili persona non grata. Despite all this the only land
connection between Georgia and Russia, which Moscow closed unilaterally
in 2006, has been reopened. While the negotiations were being conducted
some Georgian analysts hoped that Russia would lift its embargo on
Georgian agricultural products if it was also prepared to open the
checkpoint, but others stated that territory cannot be exchanged
for the chance to sell wine and mineral water. The checkpoint is
open, the Russian embargo is still in force, Russia still occupies
the breakaway regions. Nor have any special benefits been given to
the Georgians living near the border. Georgia receives almost zero
economic profit from the reopened checkpoint. Maybe the lorry drivers
will stop and eat in a Georgian restaurant, buy goods here or fill
their tanks with petrol on this side of the border. But that’s it.
We are told that if cargo can pass between Armenia and Russia through
this checkpoint Armenia will be friendlier to Georgia. A possible
separatist outbreak among Georgia’s ethnic Armenians in Javakheti
will be avoided, Armenia will refuse to recognise Abkhazia and South
Ossetia and the Armenian media will stop broadcasting anti Georgian
material. However Georgian analysts suppose, not without serious
grounds, that Russia will use the newly opened road to send military
hardware, logistics supplies and spare parts to the Russian military
base in Armenia. After the Russian aggression against Georgia in
August 2008 this base and the rest of Armenia could only be supplied
by plane. So it could be said that this is a very controversial deal.
Is it not strange to be helping the enemy supply its bases in a
neighbouring country? Analysts ask this question and express their
utmost surprise and concern.
Some Georgian analysts expect further Russian provocations in the
Kazbegi region now the checkpoint has been opened, as Russia has
designs on occupying this region as well if the recent ‘historical
analysis’ is to be believed. The Ossetian media has started saying
that Kazbegi was historically Ossetian territory and should therefore
belong to the Kokoity regime. A couple of hundred Ossetian families
do live there, so the more pessimistic analysts think that these
Ossetians might ask the Russians to help them and Russia will send
its troops in response. The West, as is traditional, would express its
concern about this but do no more, and more Georgian territory would
therefore be lost. This is a very pessimistic scenario, and hopefully
things will not turn out to be that bad, but it is a possibility.
It would have been more realistic for Georgia to ask for some
conditions in return for opening the checkpoint, for example OSCE
observers being allowed to enter the occupied territories or at least
be based at the Larsi checkpoint. The administration may try and calm
the population by saying there is no threat whatsoever in reopening
Larsi, but most Georgians doubt the ability of the authorities
to assess long term developments logically and realistically,
having experienced the August 2008 war and the obvious provocations
beforehand.