Christian Science Monitor
March 5 2010
Turkey: Why ‘Armenian genocide’ resolution may hurt US interests
Turkey’s deep emotional reaction to the ‘Armenian genocide’ resolution
passed by a US congressional committee yesterday could have
far-ranging implications for US policy in Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
By Yigal Schleifer Correspondent / March 5, 2010
Istanbul, Turkey
Those watching the mounting US-Turkey tensions over a congressional
committee’s resolution recognizing the Armenian ‘genocide’ could be
forgiven for feeling a sense of déjà vu.
A committee passed a similar resolution in 2007, leading Turkey to
recall its ambassador to Washington ` something it did again after the
resolution passed yesterday ` and warn of a serious rupture in
relations with the US. A last-minute intervention by the Bush
administration kept the bill from going any further.
This year was supposed to be different. The historic accords that
Turkey and Armenia signed this past October to restore diplomatic
relations and put in motion a process to examine the past were
supposed to take the legs out from under any effort to tar Turkey with
the `genocide’ label.
But the stalling of that reconciliation process, and Turkey’s deep
emotional reaction to the genocide issue have, once again, created a
potentially damaging situation for Turkish-US relations. It could have
far-ranging implications for US policy in the Middle East, where
Turkey is one of Washington’s most important allies and an
increasingly influential powerbroker.
`Turkey will certainly feel impelled to take retaliatory action
against the US, which will take the form of noncooperation in terms of
Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and possibly leading to restrictions on the
use of strategic assets like the Incirlik air base ` areas where there
is important cooperation,’ says Sinan Ã`lgen, chairman of the Center
for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), an Istanbul think
tank.
`This is an area where identity and emotion are in a sense superseding
pure interests," he adds. "On a topic like this, the national interest
is trumped by a core question loaded with emotions that cuts deep to
the issue of identity.’
Why accords with Armenia have stalled
The signing of the accords was initially hailed in Turkey as an
important breakthrough. But Ankara seemed to put the brakes on the
process after facing strong opposition from domestic forces and oil-
and gas-rich Azerbaijan, a traditional Turkish ally that is also a key
component of Ankara’s energy policy.
`Obviously there was an attempt by the Turkish authorities to try
something else than what they were doing for the last 95 years, and it
failed,’ says Cengiz Aktar, director of the European Studies
Department at Istanbul’s Bahcesehir University.
Neither country has ratified the accords, and Turkey now insists that
their progress is conditional upon movement on the status of
Nagorno-Karabakh, a region of Azerbaijan occupied by Armenian forces.
The stalling of the Armenia accords, say analysts here, is a key
reason why the US and Turkey have reached a point where Ankara is
again warning that its ties with Washington could be severely damaged
if the resolution continues on its way to a full vote.
`We would not have been here if the protocols had gone forward,’ says
Hugh Pope, Turkey analyst with the International Crisis Group, a
Brussels-based policy and advocacy group. `Turkey’s insisting on the
conditionality, which was not part of the protocols, has led us to
where we are today.’
‘Enraged’ at being portrayed as grandchildren of genocide perpetrators
Now faced with another `genocide’ resolution in Washington, Turkey
appears to have returned to the same strategy it has used in previous
years, one that is informed by more than simply political concerns.
`It’s emotional because Turks are very much enraged to be portrayed as
grandsons of people who committed genocide, especially when it
happened during a time when tumultuous things were happening all
over,’ says Mr. Ã`lgen of EDAM.
`The second aspect [of the Turkish reaction] is the political and
legal question, namely, if such a bill is adopted in Congress, that
might lead to a situation where Turkey might find itself as a
defendant in a number of legal cases in the US, which is something
Turkey doesn’t want to find itself in,’ he adds.
The question now is how far Ankara is willing to take things if the
resolution is put forward for a full vote in the House, something
Speaker Nancy Pelosi must first decide to do.
Brad Sherman, a Democrat from California, called Turkey a "paper
tiger" and noted that, although France passed a resolution recognizing
the genocide in 2001, trade between the countries has since
flourished.
Bahcesehir’s Aktar says he also believes Turkey’s threats are a
`bluff.’ But Ulgen says `all bets are off’ if Congress actually passes
the resolution.
-East/2010/0305/Turkey-Why-Armenian-genocide-resol ution-may-hurt-US-interests
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
