WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER THE BILL?

12:05:35 – 05/03/2010
ahos17056.html

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives
adopted Resolution 252 on the recognition of the Armenian genocide.
This fact arouses much excitement in Armenia and within the Diaspora.
The decision was taken under such conditions when the Armenian and
Turkish reconciliation process almost reached a deadlock. The Armenian
party accused Turkey of protracting the ratification of the protocols
about which the Armenian foreign minister Edward Nalbandyan stated
hours before the Congressional panel discussion. In turn, Turks
determine their policy by the progress in the Karabakh issue
settlement.

What is going to happen after the endorsement by the U.S. House
Foreign Relations Committee of the resolution? The Turkish leaders
already stated, both before and after the vote, that any adoption of
any document will jeopardize the Armenian and Turkish normalization
process. Earlier, Turkey, under the pressure of Azerbaijan,
conditioned the normalization by progress in the Karabakh dispute.
Currently, a new problem occurs for Turkey: the discussion of the
genocide bill in the full Congress session. In turn, the U.S.
administration has repeatedly tried to convince the Turkish government
not to link the Armenian-Turkish process to the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue. Will the adoption of the resolution by the U.S. House Foreign
Relations Committee and the perspective of its discussion in the U.S.
Congress make Turkey renounce the Karabakh precondition? Does this
decision not aim to free Turkey from the Azerbaijani repression
blaming the latter of posing Ankara to serious issues?

On the other hand, the process of the vote was very interesting. There
was a moment when the votes against the resolution reached a critical
point and were doubly more than those for. One more vote against and
the bill would not have passed. In the end, the votes for came out to
be more by one. An only Congressman was left, who, in the end, did not
vote and the resolution was adopted. The impression was that during
the whole process of voting, the Turkish and U.S. governments were in
active negotiations and as a result, they did not agree on some
issues. Recall before the vote, rumors spread that the U.S.
administration extorts pressure on the Congressmen. The `direction’ of
the pressure remained unknown.

However, the resolution has been adopted and it rather creates than
solves problems for Armenia. How the U.S. and Turkey will act in the
new situation. Will the U.S. not demand some `compensation’ from
Armenia in exchange of the adoption of the resolution? The situation
is worsening considering the fact that Turkey announces about `other
versions and directions’ in its foreign policy resorting even to
direct threats.

The Armenian and Diasporian lobbying organization had of course better
not overvalue the significance of the adoption of the genocide bill
which makes the situation in the region even more complicated. In
general, the U.S. is not the country which takes political decisions
under lobbying pressure. Hence, the Armenian lobbying organizations
had better change the logic and direction of their activities
directing their whole resource to making Armenia a competitive
country. A country able to defend its interests. Otherwise, adoption
of any resolution becomes senseless because the ominous question
occurs: it has been adopted, what about after?

`After’ is such a republic of Armenia which will be able to be the
master of its own fate, its own people and aspirations of the nation.
Are we able to do that?