AMERICAN ANALYST: THE REAL OBSTACLE TO RATIFICATION OF THE PROTOCOLS BY THE TURKISH PARLIAMENT IS THE LACK OF PROGRESS ON SETTLING THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH ISSUE

APA
March 9 2010
Azerbaijan

Washington. Isabel Levine – APA. "The decision of the Committee on
Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives on "Armenian genocide"
doesn’t mean the end of ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols
and the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, Stephen Larrabee,
senior analyst and Distinguished Chair in European Security at the
Washington DC based think tank RAND Organization told APA’s Washington
correspondent.

"The real obstacle to ratification of the protocols by the Turkish
parliament is the lack of progress on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue. Without some visible progress toward resolving the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the Turkish parliament is unlikely to ratify
the protocols" – Mr. Larrabee said.

According to the analyst, Congress’s Committee vote will annoy
many Turks but will not seriously harm US-Turkish relations as
long as the resolution is not put to a vote before the full House
of Representatives.

"It is the vote before the full House that is most important not the
committee vote. As noted above, the administration now seems to have
an agreement that the resolution will not be put to a floor vote in
the House. According to news reports, the Obama administration has
achieved an agreement with the House leadership that the resolution
will not be put to a floor vote. If the reports are true, this should
defuse the potential crisis" – he added.

Another analyst, Mark Meirowitz, who holds a doctorate in Politics
and teaches undergraduate courses in Politics, History and Law at
various colleges in New York, believes that, the US House Committee
resolution was "unnecessary".

"I do not believe that it is the appropriate function of the House
Committee on Foreign Affairs to become the tribunal or platform
to evaluate historical events. In my opinion, the Armenian Genocide
Resolution will harm US-Turkish relations, serves no useful purpose and
should not be approved" – analyst told APA’s Washington correspondent.

According to him, the impact of the passage of the House Committee
resolution is harmful mostly in a symbolic way.

"The Turkish government needs to remain calm about this, and devote
its energies to working out a rapprochement with Armenia; including
getting the scholars commission established to study the events in
Armenia. So long as the full House does not take up the resolution,
the damage will be limited. I do note that even if the House passed
it, which would be a terrible development, such a resolution would
not be binding", – said Mr. Meirowitz, who is also a business lawyer
in New York.