CONGRESS DECISION TO ‘AFFECT’ KARABAKH PROCESS
Aliyah Fridman
news.az
March 10 2010
Azerbaijan
Yusif Babanli News.Az interviews Yusif Babanli, board member of the
Azerbaijani American Council (AAC).
The US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee adopted a
resolution recognizing the killings of Armenians in 1915 as ‘genocide’
with 23 votes for and 22 votes against. How would you comment on
this decision?
Since 2008, the Armenians have been persistent and increased the
pressure on legislators after they were disappointed in their hope
that the then newly elected President Obama would formally recognize
the so-called Armenian genocide. The emergence of a president who
was firm on acknowledging the events of 1915 as genocide was one of
the greatest hopes of the Armenian diaspora. Since 2007, it has been
expected that the US House Foreign Affairs Committee will annually
approve the motion and endorse the resolution, passing it on to the
floor of the House. The strategic plan of the Armenian lobby is to
reach out to those congressmen who are members of this committee,
ensuring that the process goes through the first stage. The committee
includes very pro-Armenian congressmen such as Howard Berman, Brad
Sherman, Dana Rohrabacher, Barbara Lee and Gary Ackerman. In 2007, the
Armenians achieved the same results in a 27 to 21 committee vote in
favour of the resolution. So, I think although the gap between those
congressmen voting in favour and those voting against is smaller this
year, the efforts of the Turkish diaspora and the Turkish government
were not enough last year, although they were pretty effective on all
other fronts and initiatives. Another interesting fact is that one
of the friends of the Turkish community – Sheila Jackson Lee (TX) –
abstained, thus increasing the chances of the bill making it to the
House floor.
In any case, before the bill H-252 is voted on, we will see many
developments, especially reactions from the Turkish government and
Obama Administration. More than just reaching out to the legislators
in the months preceding this important hearing, Armenian lobby groups
tried to dramatize the whole hearing before the committee and media by
pulling three elderly Armenians presented as ‘genocide’ survivors from
the offices of elected officials to hearings of this nature. However,
the sad reality is that when the members of the committee who voted
against the endorsement and administrations try to prevent the bill
from passing, they hint at the importance of Turkey as a NATO ally
and strategic partner in the Middle East, but do not mention the sad
past of Turkey and Azerbaijan, where nearly two million Anatolian and
Azerbaijani Turks were massacred by Armenian bands and guerrillas in
the early 20th century. It is imperative that the Turkish government
produces and disseminates more material on the fate of Turks that
died at the hands of Dashnaks and Hnchaks, thus presenting the much
needed facts before the US media and legislators.
What is the possibility of recognition of the ‘genocide’ by Congress
as a whole?
I’d like to reiterate that the possibility of the Congress recognizing
the so-called genocide is always high and will always be high. As
long as the Armenian community actively participates in American
socio-political life, this danger will never fade away. In parallel
to just befriending the US legislators, the Armenian diaspora also
actively promotes future legislators of Armenian descent which is
likely to make it even harder to contain the efforts of the Armenian
lobby to get this bill passed, unless their efforts are countered
by Turkish and Azerbaijani diaspora. Luckily, both Turkish and
Azerbaijani diaspora have become more active in the past few years
and more and more Azerbaijani and Turkish Americans are involved in
socio-political life on the local and national levels. At this stage,
I don’t think the bill will pass because of the nature of US-Turkey
relations and the current situation in the war on terror and conflict
in the Middle East. By passing this bill, the United States is
likely to alienate Turkey, which would readily turn its back on the
US and open links with states such as Iran and Syria with which the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has already established
intimate ties. Not only could this jeopardize US positions and its
progress in Afghanistan and Iraq but it would further destabilize the
overall situation in the Middle East. That’s what the AKP is banking
on as an option. Unfortunately, not many congressmen who actively and
semi-actively support the ‘Armenian genocide’ resolution realize this
immediate danger. Stopping these possible developments will require
much effort from the US administration, both through direct contact
with the legislators and speaking out on the issue in the media,
just as the Bush Administration did.
There is an opinion that the White House is against worsening relations
with Turkey, so it is against adopting the genocide resolution. What
role does the president’s position play in this?
Worsening relations with Turkey is the last thing President Obama
wants. With Obama’s peaceful agenda to advance US foreign policy in the
Muslim world and end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan by emerging as
a winner with fewer casualties and financial losses, it is necessary
for the Obama Administration not to restrict Turkey as one of its
strategic allies in the region. Barack Obama knows that recognition
of the so-called genocide would not only worsen US-Turkey relations,
but would also help to transform Turkey. It is no secret that if the
bill is passed, the nationalist faction of Turks will unite with the
religious faction and support the incumbent AKP administration which,
apart from partnering the West, also looks to the East and wants to be
a leader in the Muslim world. Moreover, the passage of the resolution
could also lead to the breaking of contracts with US defence firms on
the sale of billions of dollars worth of arms to Turkey. President
Obama who limited his earlier promises as senator to recognize the
‘Armenian Genocide’ to using the term Metz Yeghern (‘great calamity’
in Armenian) in 2008, should come forward and show his support for
Turkey and reiterate America’s commitment to strategic partnership with
Turkey. This is a good chance for the administration to continue the
diplomatic overtures that started when Obama came to office. We hope
that sound moves from the White House will prevent this resolution
from passing and leave the matter to historians.
Turkey recalled its ambassador Namik Tan from the United States on
Thursday. What else can Turkey do to influence the Congress decision?
In my opinion, Turkey will make apparent moves to indicate its
readiness to take uncompromising ‘good will’ actions with regard
to states like Syria, Iran and Russia and/or further worsen its
relations with Israel. Turkey might also possibly make amendments to
its agreements with the US on the Incirlik base as well as revise its
strategy on the war on terror. Of course, these are not immediate
actions many would expect from Turkey, but the fact that the AKP
has made some bold moves (especially towards its ally Israel) in the
past year or so may signal its hardcore commitment to its agenda. And
again, taking into consideration the sensitivity of the ‘genocide’
accusations for ordinary Turks, the recognition of the so-called
genocide by the US Congress would trigger a ‘united we stand’ stance
from the Turkish public in support of counter-actions by the AKP.
How might the decision of the House of Representatives affect the
Karabakh settlement?
That’s one of the major negative effects of this resolution. If the
bill passes, it will make Armenia bold in its no-compromise stance on
the Karabakh conflict. In the long run, it will give more reasons to
the Armenians to justify their occupation of Azerbaijani territory;
they will base their irredentist claims on their alleged fear of
suppression and ‘new genocide’ by (Azerbaijani) Turks. For decades
now, they have portrayed the military offensive and ethnic cleansing
of Karabakh from its ethnic Azerbaijani population as a consequence of
the so-called ‘Sumgayit pogroms’, ‘Kirovobad pogroms’, ‘Baku pogroms’
deliberately relating them to their past, while at the same time
forgetting about the murder and mass exodus of Azeris from Armenia
starting in November 1987. On the other hand, this may also push
Turkey to deeper involvement and persistence on the Karabakh conflict.
On 5 March, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu already called
upon the US to clarify its position on the Karabakh conflict and
Azerbaijani-Armenian reconciliation while speaking about the occupation
of Azerbaijani territories by Armenian troops.
Yusif Babanli is a board member of the Azerbaijani American Council
(AAC), co-founder of the US Azeris Network (USAN) and corporate
secretary and director (South region).