RUSSIA ‘WINS’ IN US-TURKEY STANDOFF
news.az
March 10 2010
Azerbaijan
Nigar Goksel News.Az interviews Nigar Goksel, senior analyst at the
European Stability Initiative (ESI).
How would you comment on the resolution of the House of Representatives
Foreign Affairs Committee recognizing the killings of Armenians in
Ottoman Turkey as ‘genocide’?
The approval of the resolution branding the 1915 events as genocide in
the foreign affairs committee on 4 March did not come as a surprise
to many. It was in fact unexpected that it should have passed with
such a narrow margin, 23 to 22 votes. The resolution was passed in
this committee in 2000, 2005 and 2007. What is critical is whether
the bill will be taken to a general vote or not. The weeks ahead will
be used by both sides to put pressure on each other.
The three ‘prizes’ or threats on the table are: genocide recognition,
a Nagorno-Karabakh resolution and the opening of the Turkey-Armenia
border. Turkey and the US use these tools to create incentives to
break the deadlock – so far it has not worked and arguably it has
made the stalemates harder.
The US appears to be threatening Turkey with recognizing 1915 as
genocide if Turkey does not open its border with Armenia.
Turkey offers an open border to Armenia in return for compromise
on Karabakh and a history commission, which it seems to assume will
stall genocide recognition campaigns.
Turkey threatens the US with ending its strategic collaboration if
Congress or the president uses the word ‘genocide’.
Azerbaijan leverages its natural gas and strategic value in Washington
and Ankara to ensure the Turkey-Armenia border remains closed.
It is understandable that each side is trying to ‘level the playing
field’ with the instruments it has at hand. However in some ways, this
game does not make much sense. Ultimately none of the ‘punishments’
in store are in the interests of the countries which threaten to
deliver them either. Azerbaijan and its balanced foreign policy will
not be better off if its relations with Turkey or the US are severed,
the US will not be better off it if passes a genocide resolution which
causes the Turkish government to derail the reconciliation process
with Armenia and ‘realign’ its foreign policy in the region. And
the US will not benefit from the consequences for Turkey’s domestic
or regional realities if Turkey were to proceed with the protocols
to appease Washington. Turkey and the Turkish people will not be
better off if the Turkish government decides to explicitly counter
US interests out of spite. In fact in all these cases, it will be
Russia that wins, and no one else.
Turkey and Armenia have made mistakes as well. The protocol process
was not managed transparently enough. The clash of both sides’ red
lines and expectations was swept under the carpet which has aggravated
the sensitivities and frustrations.
At this point the US is merely helping to make the already complicated
regional dynamics even thornier and more politically charged. And
ultimately, though Turkey should and will come to terms with its
history, this will happen first at the societal level, among civil
society and intellectuals. A US imposed border-opening would not
help this process, and the wrangling surrounding this policy harms
the environment of dialogue.
Do you think Turkey will be able to resist pressure from the US and
EU, if Armenia ratifies these protocols?
The Armenian authorities have declared that they will not ratify
the protocols unless Turkey does. In fact the law on international
agreements has been amended in the Armenian parliament to make it
possible for Armenia to withdraw from the protocol agreement before
it is ratified.
The Washington leadership is mixing apples and oranges by implying
that the ‘genocide resolution’ can be prevented if the Turkey-Armenia
protocols are ratified. But of course this is traditional power
politics – so far it looks like it did in years past as spring
approached – neither more nor less ‘moral’. It is possible that
some in Washington want to ‘score’ a diplomatic victory by getting
Turkey and Armenia to ‘reconcile’. There may be other issues that
Washington feels it needs to keep the Justice and Development Party
(AKP) government under pressure about as well.
The EU should stick to what it does best – contributing to Turkey’s
progress in freedom of expression and minority rights. There are plenty
of other more pressing issues on the agenda of Turkey-EU relations –
from Cyprus to the Kurdish issue. The EU does not have the leverage
to pressure Turkey about relations with Armenia at this point.
The Turkish government cannot afford to appear to be caving in
to pressure, therefore it’s unlikely that Turkey will ratify the
protocols under these circumstances.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress