VARTAN OSKANIAN: THE DIPLOMATIC PROTOCOLS AWAITING RATIFICATION BY THE TWO COUNTRIES’ PARLIAMENTS HAVE FALLEN VICTIM TO MISCALCULATIONS ON BOTH SIDES

ArmInfo
2010-03-10 12:19:00

ArmInfo. The diplomatic protocols awaiting ratification by the two
countries’ parliaments have fallen victim to miscalculations on both
sides, ex-Foreign Minister of Armenia, Chairman of the Civilitas
Foundation Vartan Oskanian said in his article published at the site
Project Syndicate.

In his opinion, the Armenians came to believe that Turkey would find
a way to reconcile Azerbaijan’s interests with the Turkish opening to
Armenia, and would open the border with Armenia regardless of progress
on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. "The problem is that Turkey
initially closed the border precisely because of Nagorno- Karabakh,
rather than any bilateral issue. Turkey believed that by signing
protocols with Armenia and clearly indicating its readiness to open
the border, the Armenians could somehow be cajoled or pressured
into resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem more quickly or cede
territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. But this has always been
unlikely in the absence of a comprehensive settlement that addresses
Armenians’ greatest fear – security – and fulfils their basic political
requirement, namely a definition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status",
V. Oskanian said.

Both sides seem to be somewhat surprised by the other’s expectations.

Indeed, there is a growing fear that a settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is more distant now, because Turkey’s public
backing has raised Azerbaijan’s expectations, while some Armenians fear
collusion between neighbors out to railroad them into an unsustainable
agreement.

V. Oskanian thinks that this is Turkey’s moment of truth. "The
Armenia-Turkey diplomatic process has stalled, and the Turkish
government’s effort at reconciliation with the country’s large
Kurdish minority has soured. Just as a loss of confidence among
Kurds and Turks in eastern Turkey will rock the shaky stability that
they have recently enjoyed, a loss of hope for a settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute may end the tentative military calm between
Armenians and Azerbaijanis. But the situation is not irretrievable.

Endless public sparring between Turkish and Armenian officials
through the media is not helping. It is time for both countries’
leaders to speak privately and directly with each other, with an
understanding of the instability that could result from any failure
to complete the diplomatic opening that the two sides initiated",
ex-foreign minister emphasized.

"So, even as Turkey tries to deal with the consequences of its history
at home, and redefine the army’s role in society, it must reset its
tortured relationship with Armenia. The recent resolution passed by
the Foreign Relations Committee of the US Congress, which called
upon President Obama to ensure that US foreign policy reflects an
"appropriate understanding and sensitivity" concerning the Armenian
Genocide, should serve as a wake-up call to both Turkish and Armenian
governments that Armenians are not about to question the historical
veracity of the genocide. After all, if France and Germany can face
their tortured history, Turkey should be able to do so as well. The
two sides must step back, look at the situation dispassionately,
acknowledge the deficiencies in the protocols, address the other side’s
minimum requirements, and bear in mind that a single document will not
heal all wounds or wipe out all fears. The international community
must support this effort. The problem should not be dismissed as
a mere settling of old scores. What is at stake is the future of a
region critical to Eurasia’s peace, Oskanian resumed.