ERDOGAN’S TEST FOR OBAMA
Hurriyet
March 10 2010
Turkey
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan made critical statements on foreign
policy while in Saudi Arabia to receive the King Faisal Award, which
is granted to those who serve Islam.
Some of his words were directly and some indirectly pointed at
Turkey-United States relations.
Erdogan keeps criticizing the U.S. for the approval of a genocide
resolution in the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee.
The draft resolution asks April 24 to be a day of observation for
the so-called Armenian "genocide."
Since Ankara wanted the U.S. administration to stop the draft before
heading to the full House but failed by only one vote (through
last-minute maneuvering backstage), Erdogan holds the Barack Obama
administration responsible.
Although Obama was involved in the process on the last day, this
happened only after Turkish President Abdullah Gul warned him so. In
the end, Turkey gained the highest number of votes in the history of
such similar processes in the House committee. But that was enough.
Obama could not pressure adequately. However, not only foreign policy
choices, but also U.S. national policy played a role in this.
The Armenian Question and Iran
Turkey Program Director at the Center for International and Strategic
Studies, or CSIS, in Washington, Bulent Ali Rıza, has written a
commentary on March 8. Rıza in his article pays attention to the
important Congressional elections in November. He says Obama will
shift emphasis from foreign affairs to the domestic agenda in the
upcoming term.
In other words, the Armenian and Greek lobbies, and even the Jewish
lobby, which Erdogan said does not side with Turkey either, will be
important for voters’ choices and valuable for Obama.
A foreign policy exception may be Iran.
Before concentrating on the domestic agenda, Obama will host a Nuclear
Security Summit on April 12 and 13 in Washington and then face a
possible sanction resolution, which he wants the United Nations
Security Council to adopt.
The most serious obstacle is Iran itself, as far as the U.S. is
considered. But Turkey is one of the key players in this game.
First of all, Turkey is being seriously tested as a temporary member
of the U.N. Security Council after years. No one should expect Turkey
to vote against its neighbor Iran in this test. As Gul implied during
a trip to Iran, a vote of abstention or not attending the voting
session is likely.
While in Washington, Erdogan, just like any other world leader, wants
to have one-on-one talks with Obama about other issues of interest
to both Iran and Turkey.
As the April 24 threshold approaches, Obama is evaluating such a
meeting in terms of American national policy and Turkish national
policy if Erdogan fails to have what he expects during the talk.
The ambassador and shuttle diplomacy
Perhaps, just for this reason only Erdogan and his team have prepared
as though they would attend the summit in April. The team is waiting
for his final decision.
In order to ease the decision process, Ankara keeps having meetings.
For instance, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu invited the Turkish
Ambassador to Washington, Namık Tan, to Ankara for a "consultation."
He gathered high-ranking diplomats of the ministry together with the
delegation of Parliamentarians, including representatives from the
Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP. Davutoglu is trying to give a
picture of "unity."
A possibility to stop shuttle diplomacy between Turkey and the U.S.
until Apr. 24 is also being considered in these meetings. Details of
the story by Parliamentary Bureau Chief Yurdagul Å~^imÅ~_ek can be
found in the Radikal daily.
State Minister for Foreign Trade Zafer Caglayan has already postponed
a trip to the U.S. upon being requested by the Foreign Ministry.
It is also worth paying attention to Erdogan’s remark saying a decision
"depends on a clear-cut stance," which he made the other day in
response to a question about when Mr. Tan will go back to the U.S.
Erdogan expects a "clear approach" from Obama, and the "approach"
is not to pass the genocide resolution in the House plenary session.
It is also up to Obama’s attitude whether or not Erdogan will see
this April summit as a one-on-talk meeting or an international
affairs meeting.
Erdogan, in a way, wants to say to Obama, "Show me now how much you
love Turkey, me and my government."
Could there be another "one minute" move against Obama? Hardly,
but I can say this is Erdogan’s test for Obama.
* Mr. Murat Yetkin is the Ankara representative of the daily Radikal
in which this piece was published Wednesday. It was translated into
English by the Daily News staff.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress