U.S. RECOGNITION OF ARMENIAN GENOCIDE IN TURKEY MAY STRENGTHEN TIES BETWEEN ANKARA AND MOSCOW
Sergey Strokan

RusData Dialine – Russian Press Digest
March 10, 2010 Wednesday

After the U.S. Congress’ Foreign Affairs Committee passed last week
a draft resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide carried out by
Turkish authorities early in the 20th century, Ankara recalled its
ambassador from Washington for consultations and announced it could
find another energy partner: Russia.

The U.S. Congress had already considered similar resolutions in 1974
and 1985, but did not adopt them. In 2007, the House Foreign Affairs
Committee approved the draft resolution. At that time, as now, Ankara
lodged a strong protest and recalled its ambassador. President George
W. Bush had a difficult time persuading the Congressmen not to vote.

This time matters are complicated by the fact that during his election
campaign Barack Obama promised to recognize the Armenian genocide
and many now expect him to be a man of his word.

The United States historically has a strong Armenian lobby. Its
only rival is the Jewish lobby, but following a cooling of relations
between Israel and Turkey, their active support for Ankara declined.

Washington is also concerned that Turkey’s policies are too independent
and that it has strengthened its relations with Iran.

When, in February of this year, the U.S. proposed that it deploy
an anti-missile radar system on Turkish soil, Ankara diplomatically
declined, saying it first needed to secure support of the other NATO
countries. Nor are the Turks in a hurry to ratify the protocol on
the normalization of relations with Armenia, although the U.S. has
long urged them to do so.

Meanwhile, Ankara has hinted that it could easily find another energy
partner, such as Russia, for example. Sources in the Turkish government
say that Turkey "is prepared to open its doors to renewed cooperation
with Russia on this issue" if the U.S. persists on the genocide issue.

However, Congress is unlikely to pass a resolution on the Armenian
genocide: there is too much at stake. Turkey supports U.S. operations
in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Washington is not only interested in
the continuation of this cooperation, but also in strengthening it.

Equally important is the U.S. base in Incirlik, which is essential for
many U.S. air force operations. In addition, Turkey is strategically
placed on oil and gas routes from the Middle East and the Caspian
region to Western countries.