EXPERTS: FRANCE, RUSSIA HAVE FEW LEVERS FOR RAPID RESOLVING OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

Trend
March 12 2010
Azerbaijan

France and Russia have few levers for rapid resolving of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, despite the similarity of views on this
issue, experts say.

"It is one of those non-conflict topics, where there is convergence
of views between Moscow and Paris, head of Russian, Eurasian trend
and International Energy Security at the Heritage Foundation (USA),
political analyst Ariel Cohen told Trend News. I do not see real levers
of pressure on Armenia which Russia or France could propose to change
the current strategic position of the parties. Such a statement does
not change the status quo. Such a declaration will not change the
position of Yerevan.

Paris has recently noticeably intensified efforts to resolve the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

France and Russia intend to continue to cooperate closely to resolve
the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, French President Nicolas Sarkozy
said after talks with Russia’s counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in late
February.

During his visit to Paris, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s chief foreign
policy adviser Jean-David Levitte, Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry
spokesman Elkhan Polukhov told Trend News.

During the meeting they discussed the Armenian-Azerbaijani
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister informed
French adviser about Azerbaijan’s position.

French diplomat, in his turn, stressed French President Nicolas
Sarkozy’s promise, given at a recent meeting with Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev on his personal intervention in the matter
and continuation of efforts to resolve the conflict, remains in force.

Yerevan and Baku must reach a compromise to resume the "peace dynamics"
in the Nagorno- Karabakh problem, French President Nicolas Sarkozy
said. On March 10 he expressed this opinion at the talks with the
Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994.

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France, and the U.S. –
are currently holding the peace negotiations.

Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council’s resolutions
on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the occupied
territories.

According to observers, the initiative of France and Russia to resolve
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will inevitably face U.S. interests in
the South Caucasus.

According to Azerbaijani political scientist Tofiq Abbasov, the
view of Moscow is important for Sarkozy. But within this problem,
the upcoming visit of the French President to the United States can
have effect on the nature of affairs in the Caucasus region.

"Paris operates in many problems of modern geopolitics looking over
Washington, Azerbaijani political scientist Tofiq Abbasov told Trend
News. I think the problem of Nagorno Karabakh is just one of them,"
he said.

According to Cohen, the problem is that the European Union today is
not actually operating as an effective foreign policy player. "It
does not have a well-coordinated working-out of foreign political
course and a very weak mechanism for implementing such a course. Each
capital is fighting for its interests. The status of the President
and Foreign Minister is low," he said.

While the EU has no effective process of formulating and executing
foreign policy decisions, including sanctions, not to mention the
overall armed forces, it can not act as an effective player in big
geopolitics, Cohen said.

But senior fellow of European Policy Center in Brussels, Amanda Paul
speaks optimistically about the role of Russia and the EU in resolving
the conflict between the two parties.

"Today, Russia, the European Union and the United States largely agree
how to resolve the conflict, she said. All three parties support the
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and stand for withdrawal of troops
from areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh."

According to Paul, earlier Russia’s statements were contrary to the
opinion of other members of OSCE Minsk Group. But a few years ago,
Russia changed its approach to solve the problem in favor of other
international players in the region.

Experts said that the main thing is not to allow Yerevan to delay
the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

According to Abbasov, Paris states that it supports discussion of the
Madrid principles by the parties as a coherent model for resolving
the conflict.

"Just persistence and focus on a quick break from the Minsk Group
co-chairmen must conceive a serious effect on Armenia because
the Armenians tell a lie all the time by distorting the topics
of discussion. They delay working out of the document by such an
approach," Abbasov said.

Now, when two problems, including a 100-year-old Armenian-Turkish
conflict and a 22-year-old Armenian-Azerbaijani one, are joined in the
same plane, obligatory synchronization determination must be ensured.

Otherwise, there will not be stability in the Caucasus for a long time,
Abbasov said.

"That is why countries-mediators should not indulge Armenia by special
stimulatory attitude. France, too, has fault. … But in vain because
France is interested in Azerbaijan for economic reasons more than in
Armenia", Abbasov said.