TURKEY AND ARMENIA MUST SPEAK PRIVATELY: VARTAN OSKANIAN

Tert.am
16:47 ~U 12.03.10

The diplomatic protocols awaiting ratification by the parliaments
of Turkey and Armenia have fallen victim to miscalculations on both
sides, writes former Foreign Minister of Armenia Vartan Oskanian in
Lebanon’s The Daily Star.

"The Armenians came to believe that Turkey would find a way to
reconcile Azerbaijan’s interests" with Turkey normalizing relations
with Armenia, and "would open the border with Armenia regardless
of progress on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. The problem
is that Turkey initially closed the border precisely because of
Nagorno-Karabakh, rather than any bilateral issue," writes Oskanian.

In his words, Turkey believed that by signing protocols with
Armenia and clearly indicating its readiness to open the border,
Armenians could somehow be cajoled or pressured into resolving the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem more quickly or cede territories surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh.

"But this has always been unlikely in the absence of a comprehensive
settlement that addresses Armenians’ greatest fear – security – and
fulfills their basic political requirement, namely a definition of
Nagorno-Karabakh’s status. Both sides seem to be somewhat surprised
by the other’s expectations. Indeed, there is a growing fear that
a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is more distant now,
because Turkey’s public backing has raised Azerbaijan’s expectations,
while some Armenians fear collusion between neighbors out to railroad
them into an unsustainable agreement," he explained.

According to Oskanian, however, the situation is not irreversible.

"Endless public sparring between Turkish and Armenian officials through
the media is not helping. It is time for both countries’ leaders to
speak privately and directly with each other, with an understanding
of the instability that could result from any failure to complete
the diplomatic opening that the two sides initiated," writes Oskanian.