US ARMENIA GENOCIDE RECOGNITION FOSTERS HOPE FOR PEACE WITH TURKEY
By Gayane Abrahamyan
Eurasia Review
us-armenia-genocide-recognition.html
March 12 2010
A US congressional committee’s approval of a non-binding, draft
resolution to recognize Ottoman Turkey’s 1915 slaughter of ethnic
Armenians as genocide has sparked optimism among some Armenian analysts
and pro-government politicians that the measure will push Turkey to
reconcile with Armenia.
The March 4 decision by the US House of Representatives’ Committee
on Foreign Relations was narrowly carried by one vote (23 to 22)
and the measure has yet to be scheduled for debate by the full US
House of Representatives.
Nonetheless, the committee’s deliberations were watched in Yerevan with
as much attention as the September 2008 match between the Armenian and
Turkish soccer teams, a game that kicked off the "football diplomacy"
that led to the current reconciliation process.
The optimism that has followed the vote is centered on two fronts. On
the domestic front, reconciliation supporters believe that the measure
undermines opponents’ argument that restoring ties with Turkey will put
an end to Armenia’s international campaign for genocide recognition. On
the external front, such supporters also believe that the Committee’s
resolution vote will somehow push Turkey to ratify the reconciliation
protocols, a step they say is necessary before the Armenian parliament
can follow suit.
"This was a crucial argument to prove that the protocols and the
process of the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations do not hinder
the adoption of the resolution [recognizing Ottoman Turkey’s 1915
slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide]," Parliamentary Deputy
Speaker Samvel Nikoian, a member of the ruling Republican Party of
Armenia, commented to EurasiaNet.org about the House Committee on
Foreign Relations’ vote.
Armen Rustamian, a senior member of the opposition Armenian
Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun, counters that the House
committee decision only underlines that the protocols now pose
the main obstacle to a US genocide recognition — a goal which his
party, along with various US-based Armenian Diaspora lobby groups,
has long promoted.
"As we all saw, this time the arguments for voting against [the
resolution] were only the ill-fated protocols and the efforts not
to hinder the settlement process," argued Rustamian. "This should be
a lesson for our deputies: They have to realize the extent to which
the settlement process can challenge our interests."
Members of Armenia’s ruling coalition, however, seem to believe
that Yerevan can still, conceivably, accomplish its official goal
of reconciliation with Turkey. In 1993, Turkey severed diplomatic
relations with Armenia and closed its border with the Caucasus state
to protest Armenia’s conflict with Turkish ally Azerbaijan over the
disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh.
"Of course, Turkey will show strong resistance in the beginning,
but will finally ratify the protocols before April 24, before the
[US] president’s April 24 speech [on the 95th anniversary of the
1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians], to prevent the adoption of the
resolution by Congress," predicted Aram Safarian, a member of the
Prosperous Armenia Party’s political board.
As of yet, though, Ankara shows no inclination to follow that course
of action. On March 9, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an
stated that Ankara would not return its ambassador to Washington "
unless we get a clear sign on the outcome of the situation" about
the non-binding resolution on recognition of the 1915 slaughter as
genocide, the Anatolian news service reported.
Undaunted, some analysts remain optimistic.
Independent analyst Artak Shakarian, an expert on Turkey, believes
that the non-binding resolution "is quite a serious lever for the US
over Turkey: Turkey understood that the US is serious about settling
Armenian-Turkish relations because such a resolution is largely within
US foreign interests."
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to differ.
Clinton has pledged that the White House" will work very hard to make
sure it [the non-binding resolution] does not go to the House floor"
for a vote, news sites reported.
Similar measures have won committee approval three times previously —
in 2000, 2005 and 2007 — but none were brought to a full House vote.
Nonetheless, Armenian hopes for a full House vote linger on. Another
analyst, Karen Bekarian, head of the non-governmental organization
European Integration, even believes that the prospect of a vote in 2010
on the non-binding genocide resolution could diminish opposition to
Turkish-Armenian reconciliation from longtime Armenian foe, Azerbaijan.
"This time Azerbaijan will see Turkey is under serious pressure and
will not condemn Turkey’s settling relations with Armenia, as it does
now," Bekarian commented.
Apparently sensing the complexity of the moment, Armenian Foreign
Minister Edward Nalbandian in a March 6 interview with Armenian public
television cautioned that "tying up the recognition of the genocide
by Turkey with the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations has no
prospects, to say the least."
Meanwhile, Yerevan itself appears to be trying to keep its options
open on reconciliation with Turkey.
President Serzh Sargsyan submitted the protocols to parliament
on February 15 for discussion, but the agreement has not yet been
scheduled for debate.
On March 6, the president took a further step, signing into law a
bill that will allow Yerevan to withdraw from signed international
treaties, whether or not they have been ratified. The measure is seen
as a likely fallback plan for the 2009 protocols with Turkey if the
disadvantages of such an agreement begin to outweigh the advantages.
Gayane Abrahamyan is a reporter for ArmeniaNow who is based in Yerevan.