AzerNews Weekly, Azerbaijan
March 12 2010

Former Armenian FM: Turkey, Russia would meddle if war erupts over Garabagh

12-03-2010 06:35:05

The former Armenian foreign minister Vartan Oskanian claims that if
Turkey cannot advance its boldest initiatives in years ` the moves to
address decades-old tensions with Armenians and Kurds ` the country’s
own domestic situation, its relations with the two peoples, as well as
tensions in the Caucasus, `will undoubtedly worsen’.
Oskanian wrote in an article called `A reset in the Caucasus’,
released by international non-profit group Project Syndicate that `of
the several flashpoints in the region, including that between Georgia
and Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the tension between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh `is among the
most challenging’.
`The Armenian-Azerbaijani struggle is more precarious. It is no longer
a two-way tug-of-war between two small post-Soviet republics, but part
of an Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan triangle. This triangle is the direct
consequence of the process of normalization between Armenia and
Turkey, which began when both countries’ presidents met at a football
game.’
Oskanian believes that the process now hinges on protocols for
establishing diplomatic relations that have been signed by both
governments but unratified by either parliament. Completing the
process depends directly and indirectly on how Armenia and Azerbaijan
work to resolve the Garabagh conflict, the former Armenian minister
opines.
`This snarled three-way dispute, if not carefully untangled, holds
many dangers. Turkey, which for nearly two decades has proclaimed its
support for Azerbaijan, publicly conditioned rapprochement with
Armenia on `Armenian concessions’ to Azerbaijan.’
Oskanian wrote further that Turkey, a NATO member, is thus a party to
this conflict now, and any military flare-up between Armenians and
Azerbaijanis might draw it in ` possibly triggering Russia’s
involvement, either through its bilateral commitments to Armenia, or
through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which Armenia
and Russia are members.
Given energy-security concerns, any Azerbaijani conflict would also
seriously affect Europe. Iran, too would be affected, since it is a
frontline state with interests in the region.
Oskanian also points out that Armenians and Azerbaijanis have not
clashed militarily for more than a decade and a half, `but this is
only because there has been the perception of a military balance and a
hope that ongoing negotiations would succeed.’
`Today, both factors have changed. The perception of military parity
has altered. With Azerbaijan having spent extravagantly on armaments
in recent years it may now have convinced itself that it now holds the
upper hand. At the same time, there is less hope in negotiations,
which appear to be stalled, largely because they have been linked to
the Armenia-Turkey process, which also seems to be in limbo,’ Oskanian
wrote.
He also believes that the diplomatic protocols awaiting ratification
by the two countries’ parliaments `have fallen victim to
miscalculations on both sides’. The Armenians came to believe that
Turkey would find a way to reconcile Azerbaijan’s interests with the
Turkish opening to Armenia, and would open the border with Armenia
regardless of progress on resolving the Garabagh issue. `The problem
is that Turkey initially closed the border precisely because of Upper
Garabagh, rather than any bilateral issue.’ *

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress