Today, Azerbaijan
March 13 2010
Michael Gunter: Given Armenia’s geographical isolation, the long run
favors Azerbaijan
13 March 2010 [12:34] – Today.Az
Today.Az interview with Professor of political science of Tenesse
Technological University, Michael Gunter.
You, along with others, attended the Khojaly related conference, held
in Hinckley Institute, in Utah. How, in your opinion, is the informing
of Americans on this Azerbaijani tragedy going on?
The American public never even heard of Khojaly, let alone the
massacre that occurred there in 1992. Azeri authorities should
continue to try to inform world public opinion on this issue,
especially when Armenians engage in anti-Azeri propaganda.
At present, the negotiations for the Nagorno-Karabakh problem still go
on, although without any big steps forward. Baku doesn’t exclude the
possibility of military solution of this problem. Do you yourself see
the problem solved via the military actions?
Although the military option is always there, Azerbaijan would be best
served by continuing to try to solve the problem peacefully. Azeris
should continue to emphasize the principle of territorial integrity
when arguing their case as this principle is supported in their own
interests by practically every other state in the world that does not
want to be partitioned or suffer from secession. Turkey remains a
strong ally of Azerbaijan, so the Azeris should not alienate Turkey
over this issue as Turkey pursues its rapprochement with Armenia.
Given Armenia’s geographical isolation, the long run favors
Azerbaijan.
The OSCE Minsk Group has been working on the Armenian-Armenian
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for many years. Many analysts and experts
agree on one thing ` the Minsk Group has done very little to actually
progress the resolution of the conflict. Do you agree with that?
Many deep problems in international politics take years to solve or
are never solved. The Arab-Israeli, Kashmiri, and Cypriot issue come
readily to mind. It is not surprising that the OSCE Minsk Group has
made little progress. However, Azerbaijan should continue to pursue
the Minsk process, but do not ignore other opportunities. Problems
like Nagorno-Karabakh sometimes just gradually are solved by time and
the changing international situation.
As you already know, the US House Committee of Foreign Affairs adopted
23 votes to 22 the resolution on `Armenian Genocide’ on March 4.
What, in your opinion should be expected next? Will it go any further?
I do not think the `Genocide Resolution’ will go any further as it is
clearly a one-sided attempt to legislate history as well as being
against U.S. foreign policy interests. I expect President Obama to use
his influence to block any further progress. Actually the Committee
vote was more favorable to Turkey this time (23-22) compared to the
previous most recent attempt to pass such a resolution on October 10,
2007 when the House Committee on International Affairs passed an
almost identical resolution 27-21, only to see it then blocked by
President Bush.
How do you see the U.S.-Turkish relations after this resolution was adopted?
The `Genocide Resolution’ momentarily set US-Turkish relations back,
but if the Resolution proceeds no further as I expect, the entire
matter will be but a brief bump on the road of US-Turkish relations
which have so many more important aspects with which to deal.
Can we assume, that, this adoption will badly affect the
Turkish-Armenian border opening?
In the short run yes, but in the long run it is in the interest of all
parties to reach an agreement on the two protocols Turkey and Armenian
signed last October to establish diplomatic relations, establish an
historical commission to examine the events of 1915, and open the
Turkish-Armenian border.
T. Teymur
URL: