Christian Science Monitor –
March 12 2010

Turkey coup plot: What’s behind the tumultuous identity crisis

In addition to the Armenian genocide resolutions roiling Turkey in
recent days, the country has also been shaken up over the arrests of
top military officials in an alleged Turkey coup plot. How the turmoil
affects Turkey’s EU bid and its regional ambitions.

By Yigal Schliefer Correspondent / March 12, 2010
Istanbul, Turkey

The recent arrests of dozens of high-ranking military officers here `
among them the former heads of the Navy and Air Force ` for their part
in an alleged Turkey coup plot to overthrow the country’s liberal
Islamic government has caused a political earthquake here. Such
arrests were a first in Turkish history for a group previously
considered untouchable.

The officers are suspected of being part of a 2003 plan dubbed
`Sledgehammer,’ which aimed to create social chaos and political
turbulence in the hopes of removing the government of the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP). The plan, first revealed in
documents leaked to the liberal Taraf newspaper, possibly included the
bombing of popular mosques and the ratcheting-up of military tensions
with Aegean neighbor Greece.

The arrests came amid increasing tension between Turkey’s old-guard
secular elite and the government and its supporters. Controversy over
the arrests has thrown into higher relief the country’s deep political
polarization and its struggle to strengthen democracy and increase
civilian oversight of the military.

Is a military coup likely or possible?

The powerful Turkish military, which sees itself as the guardian of
the country’s secular system, has orchestrated the removal of four
governments since 1960. The last time was in 1997, when it persuaded
an Islamist-led coalition to step down simply by expressing its
dissatisfaction with the government in a detailed memorandum ` the
`postmodern coup,’ as it has come to be known in Turkey.

Things have changed a lot since then. Although a constitution drafted
after a 1980 coup enshrined the armed forces’ role as defender of
secularism and gave it broad powers, reforms linked to Turkey’s bid to
become a European Union member have clipped the wings of the military.

Although surveys have shown that the military remains Turkey’s most
trusted institution, popular support has been steadily eroding, along
with the public’s appetite for military interventions in politics.
Case in point: Though Turkey’s generals expressed their `concern’
prior to elections in 2007 in an online statement posted on the
military’s website (the `e-coup,’ some call it), the AKP went on to
sweep the parliamentary elections and install one of its leaders as
president.

What is the status of ties between the military and the current government?

Ties be – tween the military and the AKP have been tense from the start.
The party, which first came to power in 2002, was founded by members
of a re – formist wing of the Islamist party that the military had
forced out of power in 1997. Hard-line secularists have long suspected
the AKP of having a hidden agenda to blur the line between religion
and state in Turkey.

The question of what role religion should play in public and political
life has divided modern Turkey since its founding in 1923 by Mustafa
Kemal Ataturk, a military officer and secularist. For most of its
modern history, Turkey has been governed by a secular,
Western- – oriented elite, but the rise of the AKP has put the military
face to face with an emerging political class that is more connected
to its Islamic faith and sees Turkey’s place as both in the East and
in the West.

Does Turkey still plan to enter the EU?

Turkey’s connections to Europe ` economic, political, and cultural `
were already well established during the Ottoman Empire (1299-1922).
Turkey was officially recognized as a candidate for EU membership in
1999 and started negotiations with Brussels in 2005. After an initial
burst of reforms, though, Ankara appears to have lost its zeal for the
EU. Some of this is due to frustration with European foot-dragging,
but another reason is Ankara’s growing sense of its own potential as
an economic and political power in its region.

This change has been particularly noticeable in the Middle East. After
decades of keeping its Muslim and Arab neighbors at arm’s length,
Ankara has reengaged with them in recent years. Relations with Syria
and Iran, for example, have improved dramatically. Ties with Israel,
however, once an important strategic ally, have taken a serious
tumble.

This new foreign policy has led to accusations that Turkey is changing
its traditional pro-Western stance.

But Sami Kohen, a veteran foreign-affairs columnist for the daily
Milliyet newspaper, sees it differently: `During the cold war,
Turkey’s foreign policy was indexed to the West, to Washington,’ he
says. `Here we have a turning point, a change. Is Turkey changing
axis? It’s not a useful question…. I believe the thinking now in
government circles is that Turkey itself can now be an axis.’

How does this latest domestic turmoil affect Turkey’s regional ambitions?

Turkey’s ability to succeed on the world stage is tied to its being
able to resolve its troubles at home first, observers say.

`We have a lot of unsettled accounts domestically,’ says Semih Idiz,
an Ankara-based analyst who also writes for Milliyet. `A lot of things
have been whitewashed over the years, and now everything has come home
to roost in a big way. All this talk of where Turkey is going is
meaningless until Turkey itself figures out what its own identity is.’

Many in Turkey say the nation needs to abandon its 1980 Constitution,
dictated by the military, and write a new document that reflects
liberal democratic values.

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