‘PULL ASIDE’ FORMULA IN WASHINGTON
by Asli Aydintasbas

Milliyet
March 15 2010
Turkey

The chain of events that unfolded after the Foreign Relations Committee
of the US House of Representatives acknowledged the Armenian genocide
has unexpectedly brought Turkish-US relations to the threshold of an
arguably "serious" crisis. The crisis that began with the recall of
Turkish Ambassador in Washington Namik Tan has turned into a real
diplomatic chess game with Erdogan’s declaration that he wants "a
clear posture from the United States." Ankara wants "dual guarantees"
from Washington in order to put bilateral relations back on track. In
messages conveyed to Washington through official and unofficial
channels, Turkey has said that it wants assurances that the genocide
bill will not be brought to the floor of the House of Representatives
and that President Barack Obama will not use the word "genocide"
in his annual 24 April statement.

Will not go to house floor

However, the Obama administration and the US State Departments are
hard put to make the pledge Ankara wants in writing or verbally,
arguing that they "cannot give any guarantees about what Congress
might do." In truth, the bill that was approved by a hair’s breadth
in the committee is not expected to come to the House floor. Even so,
Washington does not wish to make any pledges with regard to Congress,
which is considered the embodiment of the national will.

Similarly, US State Department officials find it hard to give the
guarantee Ankara wants with regard to Obama’s 24 April message. Prior
to becoming president, Obama called the 1915 events a "genocide" and
hinted in his address to the Turkish Grand National Assembly that he
personally believes that these events constituted "genocide." Last
year, Obama commemorated the events of 1915 with the phrase "Metz
Yeghern" (Great Calamity). The US President is not expected to use
the word "genocide" this year either. However, the written or verbal
"guarantee" Ankara wants has put the White House and the State
Department in a difficult position.

‘Pull aside’ at nuclear summit

Now all eyes have turned to the international summit in Washington,
which Erdogan is expected to attend on 12 and 13 April, as a possible
venue where the deepening crisis may be overcome. The summit, which
will be hosted by Obama and where the Iran situation will also be
discussed, will be attended by the leaders and representatives of
44 countries, ranging from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to
French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

If Erdogan goes to the summit, the plan is for him to get together
with Obama using the informal formula known as "pull aside."

The meetings the Americans call "pull asides" do not have the
character of an official meeting in the Oval Office of the White
House, but they serve as "mini summits" with pre-arranged agendas
and timing. Such meetings may last anywhere from five-ten minutes
to 45 minutes. Both US and Turkish officials have suggested that, if
Erdogan goes to Washington, the two leaders may get together through
this arrangement. Earlier, at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh and at the
NATO summit, Obama and Erdogan got together in a similar setting to
discuss bilateral relations. If such a meeting is held [in Washington
in April], Erdogan is expected to give a warning about 24 April and
underscore that any outbursts with regard to "genocide" would have
an adverse impact on the process of normalizing ties between Turkey
and Armenia.

Critical Council of Ministers meeting

The government’s position and whether Erdogan will go to Washington
on 12 April will become known at the end of the Council of Ministers
meeting to be held today. There are two different opinions in
the cabinet about the degree of severity of the posture taken with
regard to Washington. Some ministers, including Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu, believe that the United States "needs" Turkey, that Ankara
must not show any softening with regard to 24 April, and that it is
Washington’s responsibility to improve bilateral relations.

The proponents of the second view argue that the controlled tension
policy Turkey has been pursuing with respect to its ally, which is
also the world’s most powerful country, would drive Ankara away from
the Western world. They insist that the recalled ambassadors should
return to their posts as soon as possible to repair relations and to
lobby against Armenian efforts.

Even as we wait for the prime minister’s final decision, the US
visits of all ministers have been cancelled. While the TUSIAD [Turkish
Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association] has cancelled the visit
of its delegation to Washington, TOBB [Turkish Union of Chambers and
Stock Exchanges] and DEIK [Council on Foreign Economic Relations] have
chosen to wait for the government to finalize its position before
they decide whether they will attend the annual American-Turkish
Council meeting in the US capital.

‘Conspiracy theorist’ living in Beyoglu

Over the weekend, a magnificent article about "conspiracy theories"
that have suffocated Turkey appeared in The Wall Street Journal,
one of the most influential newspapers in the United States. It is
sometimes useful to read about our demented state of mind from the
writings of an outsider.

Claire Berlinski, who calls Turkey "A Nation of Conspiracies,"
sees a divided Turkey when she takes a bird’s eye view. She sees two
"paranoid" camps: one that blames every hurdle on conspiracies hatched
by a "deep state" that encompasses the military and the judiciary;
and another that constantly worries about the threat of "the Justice
and Development Party and the Gulen community seizing control of
the state."

She writes: "It is the paranoid style of Turkish politics itself that
should alarm the West. Turkey’s underlying disease is not so much
Islamism or a military gone rogue, but corruption and authoritarianism
over which a veneer of voter participation has been painted." Is
she wrong?

As a person who has had enough of conspiracy theories, I visited
Claire yesterday to congratulate her on her article. Claire is
a young woman who has lived in Turkey, more correctly in Beyoglu
[Istanbul], for the last four years. She has a fluid narrative and
she is a competent journalist. She works as a freelance reporter for
leading publications in the United States.

Claire explained what she thought was the source of this conspiratorial
thinking. Then I asked her: "Do not these people accuse of you being
a CIA agent because of your residence here?"

This is the fate of all Britons and Americans who live in Turkey. I
know numerous foreign writers and journalists who live in Istanbul.

Virtually all of them have, in one way or another, faced the question:
"Are you a CIA agent?" They have become so accustomed to the Turks’
conspiracy theories about anything foreign that many of them simply
laugh and let the question pass without going to great lengths to
try to explain that they are not agents.

Claire apparently did something else. She wrote a novel about it. The
setting of "Lion’s Eyes" is Istanbul. The novel describes the romance
and adventures of a young novelist called Claire Berlinski who is
accused of being a CIA agent after she meets an Iranian man.

Claire says: "However, this is a novel." I respond: "Of course,
of course."