AN INEXPLICABLE TRIPLE THREAT

Daily Star
d=1&article_id=112861&categ_id=17
March 18 2010
Lebanon

Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has laid down a
dangerous and seemingly inexplicable threat – a triple threat, in
fact. Erdogan told the BBC’s Turkish service that while an estimated
170,000 ethnic Armenians live in his country, only 70,000 or so
are actually full-fledged citizens, meaning that the rest faced the
possibility of deportation.

"If necessary, I will tell the remaining 100,000 to leave. I can do
so because they are not Turkish citizens and I’m not obliged to keep
them in my country," Erdogan said.

There’s of course the direct, domestic threat, to thousands of people
covered by this sweeping pronouncement. Why now? These stateless
people didn’t enter Turkey in the last few years. If 100,000 stateless
Armenians have been residing there for decades, seemingly without
major incident, why has Erdogan suddenly remembered their status and
threatened them with expulsion?

The answer of course lies in another dimension of the issue: the
world. The Swedish Parliament and US Congress have recently taken
steps to pass resolutions recognizing the Ottoman genocide of World
War I, against the Armenians, and according to the Swedes, against
the Assyrians, Chaldeans and Pontiac Greeks as well.

Naturally, Erdogan is reacting to these pronouncements from foreign
states, but rather than cut ties with these countries, he’s issued
a threat that’s politically counter-productive and morally deplorable.

But the most worrying dimension of his move is regional. Erdogan
told Armenia that it should distance itself from its diaspora,
which he considers a source of evil, saying in effect: "Yerevan,
focus on your relations with Ankara, or we’ll kick 100,000 Armenians
out of our country." It’s not exactly a positive plank in Erdogan’s
announced policy of "zero conflict" in the region.

It also comes after Turkey distinguished itself by criticizing the
policies of a certain state, Israel, against a certain stateless
people, the Palestinians. One interview to the BBC could destroy all
of the credit amassed by Erdogan and his government, and make him
out to be a petty settler of scores, not a statesman.

Our region has its own worrying precedents. A fit of pique by Saudi
Arabia in the wake of Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait saw Riyadh expel
around 1 million Yemenis. It might have served some domestic purpose
at the time, but it’s long-range effects have been devastating for
Saudi Arabia’s state, its economy, and the world, since the Yemeni
factor in the growth and actions of Al-Qaeda has been quite pronounced.

For the region, Turkey hasn’t been a shining beacon of free civil
society and democracy, but it’s served as a possible model for the
future of Arab states: civilian governments and a military that doesn’t
directly hold the reigns of power. How could Ergodan’s move possibly
benefit anyone?