NORMALIZATION OF TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
Burcu Gultekin Punsmann
Hurriyet
March 17 2010
Turkey
The signing of the protocols to establish diplomatic relations and the
development of relations by the Turkish and the Armenian Ministers
of Foreign Affairs in Zurich on Oct. 10, 2009, concluded two years
of bilateral negotiations conducted under the Swiss mediation. This
first inter-governmental text ever signed between Turkey and Armenia
since the Treaty of Kars on Oct. 13, 1921, has been hailed as a
harbinger of winds of change in South Caucasus where the status quo
characterized by conflicts divides, blockades and trade restrictions
is far from satisfactory.
Both sides have poured in months of effort to work out the extremely
careful wording of the texts. The protocols establish the ground of
the bilateral inter-governmental consensus. The protocols incorporate
a detailed outline for establishing diplomatics ties, opening the
common border and improving bilateral and human-to-human relations
according to a set of principles and a timetable. It would be naive
and misleading to assume that the texts aim at full normalization and
an overnight settlement of all problems between Turkey and Armenia
and Turks and Armenians. The ratification of the protocols by the
parliaments of both countries is only a start to the reconciliation
process between Turks and Armenia.
The protocols are pointing at the need for cooperative actions
for enhancing regional stability and security aiming at ensuring
the democratic and sustainable development of the region and are
highlighting specifically the importance of cooperation in the fields
of science and education, aiming at preserving the cultural heritage of
both sides and launching common cultural projects. The protocols are
also envisaging the creation of a sub-commission on trade, tourism
and economic cooperation. The scope of activity and aims of the
sub-commission on the historical dimension are clearly worded. The
sub-commission will carry on an impartial scientific examination
of the historical records and archives to define existing problems
and formulate recommendation. The sub-commission aims at opening a
channel of dialogue and enabling Turks and Armenian to jointly look
back to their common history and bridge progressively the historical
gap so sadly symbolized by the sealed border between the two countries.
Both sides have indeed a lot to win on the regional and the
international arena from this proactive problem-solving attitude. As
expressed by President Sargsyan, "The initiative to normalize
Armenian-Turkish relations is in the epicenter of attention of the
international community" and replied by President Gul, "The bilateral
efforts aimed at the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations
attracted due attention world-wide by creating a new hope for peace
in our conflict-ridden geography."
However today the process seems to be in a vacuum. Ahmet Davutoglu,
the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs introduced the protocols
to the Parliament end October 2009, with a speech, depicting the
recognition of the border as a major gain for Turkey. The protocol
on the establsihment of diplomatic relations confirm the mutual
recognition of the existing border between the two countries as
defined by the relevant treaties of international law. However the
minister’s speech didn’t end with a call for ratification.
On Jan. 12, the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Armenia has
declared its decision of constitutional conformity on the protocols
with a short statement. However the publication on Jan. 18 – that
came as a surprise and probably was motivated by domestic political
reasons – on the grounds that the decision has generated a dangerous
tendency to interpret and read between the lines a text of diplomatic
consensus. It is important to bear in mind that the signatures of
ministers Nalbantyan and Davutoglu ended the negotiation process. The
bottom line is that the court decided the protocols are in compliance
with the constitution of Armenia. It added no qualification to the
key sentence spelling out this final decision.
The Armenian government has sent this week the ratification papers
for the deal to parliament. Some new voices evoke the eventuality,
as slight as it might be, that Armenia has taken the initiative by
ratifying first the protocols. However the fear to be let down is here:
the National Assembly of Armenia began debating on Feb. 23 a government
bill that would make it easier for Armenia to annul its normalization
agreements with Turkey if Ankara continues to delay their ratification.
The process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations and the
resolution of Karabakh cannot be inter-linked. None of the members
of the OSCE Minsk Group seems ready to accept a change of the format
of negotiations. Despite the six meetings held in 2009, Armenia and
Azerbaijan only reached an agreement on the wording of the preamble of
the updated version of the 2007 Madrid Principles in Sochi on Jan. 25.
The normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations has the capacity of
fostering new dynamics in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict,
the most intractable conflict and among the biggest obstacles to
region-wide cooperation. At this stage, the interruption of the
Turkish-Armenian bilateral relations will dissipate the international
attention focused on the region and decrease the chances to reach in
a foreseeable future an agreement on the conflict over Karabakh.
If the window of opportunity is lost and the process is interrupted,
the perspective to establish normal state-to-state relations between
Turkey and Armenia can be lost for many years. That might push
to region back, far beyond where the talks started. The degree of
disappointment and disillusion will be commensurate with the intensity
of hope generated by the visits of the presidents and the breathtaking
signature ceremony in Zurich. The initiative of the two presidents
has brought additional source of legitimacy to Turkish and Armenian
civil society and business community looking forward for increased
interaction between the two countries.
In Armenia, the main motivation goes far beyond the expectation of
economic gains. The aspiration to reach Turkey and to be allowed to
go beyond the border is essential. Turks on the borderland are also
curious to discover their neighbors. It would be misleading to take
for granted that there is a strong opposition on the grassroots level
in Turkey to the normalization of relations and the opening of the
border with Armenia. The same curiosity and aspiration to rediscover
the Armenian neighbor is present in many Anatolian cities. The issue of
the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations is indeed a popular one
in Turkey. It is just not an issue on the national level. It’s hard to
say that the signing of the protocols has triggered an animated debate
in Turkey. This points to the fundamental asymmetry of Turkish-Armenian
relations. Armenia cannot forget about Turkey. Even a Turkish policy
of indifference will impact the Armenian side.
The exchange of messages between presidents Gul and Sarkisian on
7-11 February reasserted the adherence on both sides to the primary
provisions of these protocols and stressed the existence of a shared
political will to complete the process that was jointly initiated. The
necessity to stand behind words and to support words by deeds were
emphasized by both President Gul and President Sarkisian, as well as
the reciprocal commitment to honor commitments and display political
courage and vision.
The personal re-involvement of the presidents of both countries will
hopefully push the issue of normalization of bilateral relations
beyond domestic politics. There is a pressing need to support the
decision-making process with practical and symbolic steps that will
prepare people mentally for the opening of the border.
*Ms. Burcu Gultekin Punsmann is a Foreign Policy Analyst at the
Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) in Ankara
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress