SENSITIVE PERIOD IN FOREIGN RELATIONS
Hurriyet
March 17 2010
Turkey
In a recent article I wrote that March could be a critical month for
Turkish foreign policy and that we might have difficulties abroad due
to the Armenian and Cyprus questions in particular. Another point I
tried to emphasize in the article was the danger of a serious crisis
we might have with friends and allies as a result of this shift in
Turkish foreign policy…
Turkish-Swedish and Turkish-U.S. relations are going through a
sensitive period because of the Armenian Genocide Bill approved in
both countries. Turkey is following a "controlled tension policy"
calling back ambassadors and canceling trips to the said countries.
Aside from its populist dimension, the diplomatic purpose is to teach
a lesson to parliaments approving the genocide bills and push the
governments of such countries to take some kind of action.
This has been managed in Sweden and the Swedish parliament showed
reaction to the decision. But the Turkish ambassador to Stockholm is
still being kept in Ankara while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
has canceled a scheduled visit to Sweden.
Reactions against the U.S. continue unchanged. The Turkish government
expects that it could stimulate the Barack Obama administration, which
has remained passive to date, to be more energetic on this particular
issue. The government also expects a sign from Mr. Obama showing that
he wouldn’t utter the word "genocide" in his April 24 speech.
It is uncertain when and to what extent these reactions take place.
But the reality is that the current situation harms relations and,
most importantly, deepens distrust.
Stormy days
Now let’s look at the developments in Cyprus and Turkey-European
Union relations.
Settlement talks continue "officially". In April, however, northern
Cyprus will go through a presidential race. So, both sides will have
a break in the negotiations. The new president will be a determinative
factor whether or not talks will continue in the future.
Many issues in Cyprus are contingent upon the result of the elections.
If current President Mehmet Ali Talat steps down, the solution method
which both parties are already discussing may not be on the agenda.
And its international ramifications may force Turkey to renew its
policy.
There is no progress in membership talks between Turkey and the
EU due to the Cyprus conflict. If Turkey doesn’t open its ports to
Greek Cyprus vehicles by the end of the year, the European Commission
could suspend talks. And that could bring Turkey-EU relations to
a breaking-point.
In short, stormy days in the EU and U.S. fronts are yet to come…
Matter of priority
All these developments make us ask what kind of changes we could
expect in Turkish foreign policy. The government pays a great deal
of attention to policies based on "zero problem with neighbors"
and "regional pro-active roles." And what will they do to maintain
relations with the West? In other words, will the Justice and
Development Party, or AKP, government continue to prioritize relations
specifically with the U.S. and the EU and with the West in general?
Possibilities for a change in the current course, which is being
debated frequently, as well as falling away from the West are back
on the agenda again…
* Mr. Sami Kohen is a columnist for the daily Milliyet in which this
piece appeared Wednesday. It was translated into English by the Daily
News staff