EXPERTS: TURKISH PM’S ON EVICTION OF ILLEGALLY LIVING ARMENIANS WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT ESTABLISHING OF ANKARA-YEREVAN RELATIONS

Today
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March 18 2010
Azerbaijan

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statements on eviction
of illegally Armenian migrants from the country will adversely
affect the process of normalization of the Ankara-Yerevan relations,
experts believe.

"The Armenian lobby will use Erdogan’s statement against Turkey," Johns
Hopkins University, Institute of Central Asia and Caucasus director,
Svante Cornell said. "This is will unambiguously negative impact on
the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations and the overall
impact on Turkey’s current situation."

Erdogan warned of possible expulsion of 100,000 Armenians illegally
living in Turkey, if Armenia does not get rid of the Armenian
diaspora’s control, in an interview to the British BBC television
and radio company.

It was the minister’s response to the question asked about Ankara’s
reaction to adoption of a resolution recognizing the so-called
"Armenian genocide" by the several countries’ parliaments.

A week after the adoption of the resolution on "Armenian genocide"
by the U.S Congress’s committee March 4, the Swedish parliament by a
margin of one vote, approved the document that recognizes the so-called
"genocide."

Erdogan said nearly 170,000 Armenians live in Turkey currently.

"70,000 of these people are our citizens and others are living in
Turkey illegally," he said. "Tomorrow, if necessary, I will say that
100,000 to leave our country. I’ll do this because they are not our
citizens and I am not obliged to keep them in our country."

Observers believe Erdogan’s statement is a diplomatic message- warning
for Armenia. However, the world Armenian diaspora is unlikely to
respond to it.

Armenia should draw conclusion from Turkish Erdogan’s statement on
eviction of illegally living 100,000 Armenians from the country,
Erdogan’s Adviser on Eurasia Geybulla Ramazanoglu thinks.

With such a statement, Erdogan wants to show the world and the Armenian
lobby that Turkey has great capacity to deal with the Armenians.

"It is no secret that Armenia continues its pressure on Ankara over
its so-called" Armenian genocide "and many other means. Armenia should
understand that Turkey may also, as it, to resort to different levers
of pressure," Ramazanoglu said.

However, the Armenian lobby is unlikely to make concessions towards
Erdogan’s statement, experts said. "The Armenians’ welfare has never
been urgent for the Armenian lobby. The lobby has never worked in
the interests of Armenia", Prime Minister’s advisor said.

According to Azerbaijani political analyst Tofig Abbasov, a
100-strong army of illegal immigrants in the country with strict
immigration procedures, should be considered as created support
to normalize relations. It is programmed and will be held. Besides
illegal immigrants, there is also a numerous Armenian diaspora in
Turkey. It is also endowed with a conciliatory function. All these
forces together will rebuild the very foundation which is necessary
for the restoration of relations.

"I think Erdogan’s statement about the possible expulsion of illegal
Armenian immigrants from Turkey is the link in the chain of emotional
skirmishes that ensued between the parties after a failure in the
protocol of diplomacy," analytical group "Lider-TV" expert Abbasov
said.

However, according to experts, Erdogan’s statement will negatively
affect the process of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement.

Ramazanoglu said that the ongoing negotiations "at an impasse" and
while Armenia does not back down from its current position with
regard to Turkey and Azerbaijan, there will not be any shift in
these negotiations.

According to Abbasov, it was naive to believe that reconciliation
will occur without a problem. The question is not simple. One can
say that it is painful for both Armenia and Turkey. But one should
cross the existing barriers, expert said. Washington insists on this
as the main initiator of the whole program, he said. "All this is
done because Armenia as a country has already resigned itself as a
migrant worker of a big geopolitical market. Because of incompetence
as a subject of international policy, Yerevan was forced to go on a
desperate action, by delegating its powers to take important decisions
to the superpowers," Abbasov said.

For this reason, Armenia will not be able to do anything significant
if Ankara takes extreme measures, he said.

According to Cornell, Erdogan must not have done such nationalist
statements in such a sensitive moment for the Armenian-Turkish
relations, when the protocols have not been ratified, and the Committee
on Foreign Affairs of the U.S. House of Representatives adopted a
resolution on "genocide", which only exacerbated the tensions between
the two countries.

"Such statements are sure to negatively affect the process of
establishing the relations between Ankara and Yerevan," Cornel said.