‘VERY DIFFICULT’ FOR IRAN TO BE INVOLVED IN KARABAKH SETTLEMENT

news.az
March 19 2010
Azerbaijan

Map of Azerbaijan News.Az interviews Emmanuel Karagiannis, senior
consultant and coordinator for the Caspian Energy and Security Forum
at MEC International in London.

What are the prospects for a Karabakh settlement in the near future?

Although there have been indications that the two sides are
moving towards a settlement, one cannot be very optimistic for two
reasons: first, there has recently been a deterioration in relations
between Turkey and Armenia that will affect one way or another the
Azeri-Armenian relationship. Second, there is no consensus within
both Azerbaijan and Armenia regarding what is ‘acceptable’ and what
crosses the line. Therefore, the Armenian and Azeri governments will
have to convince their respective societies about the need for a less
than ideal settlement

The international community officially recognizes Karabakh as part of
Azerbaijan. But is there any threat of Karabakh’s independence from
Azerbaijan after what happened in Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

It is highly unlikely that any country, including Russia, will
recognize de jure the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. In particular,
Russia won’t jeopardize its growing energy trade with Baku over this.

How would you estimate the role of Turkey in the settlement? Can it
be positive despite the problems between Turkey and Armenia?

Without doubt, Turkey has a strong role in Transcaucasia but in recent
years its relationship with Russia has reached a high point. Moreover,
Ankara is not considered an honest broker by most Armenians. Yet,
if Turkish-Armenian relations improve considerably, that will
certainly increase dramatically the chances of a settlement in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In the Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan triangle,
each side has its own interest that must be taken into account by
the others.

Iran as well expresses willingness to be involved in the settlement.

What kind of role can Iran play?

At a time of increased tensions between Tehran and the West, it is
very difficult for the Iranian leadership either to launch a diplomatic
initiative or to get involved in the settlement.

Azeri authorities say there will be a new war for Karabakh if the
negotiations with Armenia fail. How likely is a new war in the region?

Although a new war does not seem probable, no one can exclude the
possibility that the Azeri leadership will feel strong pressure
at some point from Azeri society to use military force against the
Karabakh Armenians.

Emmanuel Karagiannis is senior consultant and coordinator for
the Caspian Energy and Security Forum at business consultants MEC
International in London.

Aliyah Fridman News.Az